Page 134 - RusRPTDec21

Gazprom’s daily contractual obligation on 7 November.
Gazprom increased deliveries to the domestic market by 7% YoY, according to Interfax.
Interfax reported that Gazprom did not book volumes via Yamal-Europe for December, nor did it book additional capacity via Ukraine on November 15.
Regarding the increase in volumes to China, we believe this could be on the back of the energy deficit, as Inter RAO has increased electricity exports. We do not know what price for additional volumes is used, i.e. if it is in line with the long-term contract price or higher based on another pricing instrument.
The TTF price jumped on the back of Gazprom not booking additional volumes via Yamal-Europe and Ukraine. We are now seeing exports via Ukraine as in line with the contracted level, and the company says such volumes should come in above the contracted level for the year. Regarding Yamal-Europe, Gazprom booked 31.4mn m3 per day for November, saying that its decision to book volumes for the month out depends on requests from buyers, Interfax reported. Gazprom said it could still book volumes on a short-term basis, i.e. weekly or monthly.
In terms of production and exports, we calculate Gazprom as producing c. 1.4bcm per day. We wrote yesterday in our note “Gazprom: Flows start to pick up to Europe” that Gazprom’s maximum production level is probably slightly above 1.5bcm per day, taking historical data into account. We do not see this level of production regularly, and the last time it reached this level was January-February.
We calculate the gap in exports to Europe vs. the record gas year of 2018 as growing. In 9M21, we estimated that exports to Europe and Turkey were down about 10.5bcm (-7%) vs. 9M18. We calculate exports to Europe and Turkey at 171.6bcm for 10.5M21, which is 15.1bcm (-9%) below the level for this same time period in 2018. If flow rates to Europe and Turkey remain at their 10.5M21 average, Gazprom would export 179bcm for the year, meaning the export flow rate (excluding China) has to increase vs. the 10.5M21 average to reach the company’s guidance of 183bcm.
Gazprom announces a record 2022 investment programme number. Gazprom has announced it budgeted its investment programme for 2022 at the record level of RUB 1.758tn. This includes RUB 1.427tn capex, RUB 253bn for long-term financial investments and RUB 77bn funds for the acquisition of fixed assets.
These numbers represent the so-called ‘implementation’ investment programme of Gazprom. The ‘financing’ investment programme is to be lower – at USD 1.5tn, as the company advanced some payments for 2022 into this year. Planned borrowing is at RUB 273bn. The 2022 investment programme is to include development of new gas
134 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com