Page 151 - RusRPTDec21

9.2.6 Agriculture corporate news
Rusagro) has released strong 3Q21 trading results, with revenues surging 43% y/y to RUB57bn. The key driver was the favourable pricing environment, which saw 20-60% y/y growth in market prices across the company's key commodities but stabilisation to 5% q/q.
We see the operating results as providing an upbeat outlook for the company’s financials, which are to be reported on 15 November. In our view, the short-term prospects are robust, implying Rusagro’s EBITDA gaining 32% y/y to RUB42bn in 2021F, per our model. The stock has added 53% YTD and now demands 2022F EV/EBITDA of 5.9x, offering a 12-month dividend yield of
10%, which space.
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we think is one of the most appealing profiles in the consumer
Total revenues surged 43% y/y to RUB57bn in 3Q21. In 9mo21, the top line reached RUB165bn, which is equal to 73% of our annual estimate.
The oil and fats segment continued to be the key revenue contributor, with a 57% share (44% a year ago). Sales of bulk oil surged 2x y/y to 120kt, while market prices have corrected 23% q/q in 3Q21 to RUB86/kg (based on IKAR) on the back of introduced export tariffs on vegetable oil.
Revenues from the meat segment increased 17% y/y to RUB10.3bn.
Production volumes were flat y/y and q/q, while market prices (IKAR) added 23% and 9%, respectively, mostly on the back of cost inflation (including feed) in the last twelve months, in our view.
Sugar revenues grew 13% y/y to RUB7.7bn. The sales volumes were 13% y/y lower (179k tonnes), reflecting lower supply and yields in MY21 (September/August), while market prices remained at high level (RUB39/kg, +35% y/y), as we expect that in new season balances will remain tight, while supply and consumption are to be almost evenly balanced.
In the agriculture business, revenues were flat y/y at RUB6.8bn, representing 12% of the total. We note the 10% q/q decline in the blended price for corn, barley and soy, while wheat stayed flat during the same period. In our view, this indicates downward pressure from the tighter export regime, as well as from new harvest campaign and acceleration of supply.
151 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com