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conservative side—it anticipates Georgia will record a GDP gain of 4.3% this year, according to the latest edition of its Global Economic Prospects report issued on January 9.
3.2 ​Macro outlook
Major investment bank G&T sees Georgia’s 2020 GDP growth at 4.7%
Major investment bank in Georgia Galt & Taggart (G&T) expects the country to see growth of 4.7% growth in 2020, Lasha Kavtaradze, head of macroeconomics analysis and forecasting at the bank told Businiss Media in an interview. ​He pointed to the benefits of foreign inflows, such as from remittances and tourism, and fiscal stimulus and expected monetary loosening to also be among the drivers.
The World Bank anticipates Georgia will record a GDP gain of 4.3% in 2020, according to the latest edition of its Global Economic Prospects report issued on January 9. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected 4.3%. Kavtaradze predicted that the government's infrastructure spending would also be focused on economic growth, with monetary policy tightening in the second half of the year expected to slow.
“Revenue from external sources will be an important factor in sustaining consumer demand and hence having a positive impact on economic growth. In terms of investment we see that the growth of lending to companies by the banking sector was significant in 2019. It is expected that growth will continue in 2020. Finally, a tighter monetary policy in light of the increased demand for foreign currencies, especially the euro on loans [will have an impact],” said Kavtaradze.
On the fiscal side, Kavtaradze said there was significant support for economic growth in 2019.
“There was significant support for fiscal growth in 2019. The size of government spending on GDP in 2020 is almost unchanged and it will continue to support economic growth. [...] Fiscal acceleration will occur during the elections and this will support economic growth. Under the baseline scenario, growth of 4.7% is achievable,” Kavtaradze said.
13​ GEORGIA Country Report​ February 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com