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bne March 2018 Eastern Europe I 47
at the polls. According to recent polls all Ukraine’s politicians are doing badly as the electorate are tired of the current elite. What is remarkable is Poroshenko’s patent unpopularity with voters has not trans- lated into greater popularity for his rivals.
Wanted in Tbilisi
Despite Saakashvili’s illegal entry to the country and statelessness, he was not arrested and applied for refugee sta-
tus with the local authorities. The decision to deport Saakashvili comes as his applica- tion for refugee status was finally rejected, according to the authorities.
The choice of Poland is a compromise
by Kyiv. The Border Service say that Saakashvili is being sent back to the country from which he came, but usually deportees are sent back to their country of origin – doubly so in Saakashvili’s case as he has no passport. The Georgian authorities applied to Kyiv for Saakash-
The deportation is an attempt by Poroshenko to silence Saakashvili as
the Ukrainian president comes under increasing pressure ahead of the elec- tions. Poroshenko has been playing increasing rough on the domestic field, using administrative resources to sully his potential political opponents and reneging on promises made to Ukraine’s main donor, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), that would hurt him politi- cally, such as hiking domestic gas tariffs or pushing through a reform to create
a land market. Following the issue of a $3bn sovereign Eurobond last year, the government is much less dependent on donors’ aid and has subsequently taken its foot off the reformist gas pedal.
A failed experiment
The deportation probably ends Saakash- vili’s political career in Ukraine. He set up a party in November 2016 that was registered in February 2017 and called
conference to mark the establishment of his party in November 2016. However, voters clearly don't see Saakashvili as the man to make the changes.
It also brings to an end Ukraine’s experi- ment with importing the “team Georgia” approach to reforms. In an attempt to copy Saakashvili’s dramatic clean up after being elected president of Geor- gia, on which he built his international reputation, Ukraine imported several Georgians to head up various initiatives, including as the head of Ukraine’s police force. However, this attempt failed as these reformers were stymied by insti- tutional resistance to change and were quickly ousted from their posts.
The Saakashvili saga will not help Ukraine’s case with the international community, which has already started to suffer from “Ukraine fatigue”. The Minsk II accord designed to bring an end to the fighting in the country’s eastern regions has stalled and all the deadlines set in the document for the end of 2015 have been missed.
However, no alternative plan has been suggested other than by former German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmei- er, who suggested a phased approach where the targets in Minsk II were made more specific and smaller, and more concrete rewards were set for meeting these less ambitious goals. However, this idea never gained traction and with Steinmeier’s departure from the foreign office after he was made Germany’s president last year, the idea is dead. Indeed, in January German Chancel- lor Angela Merkel reiterated that there was no alternative to Minsk II as the EU renewed its sanction regime on Russia for another six months.
“This is not a president and not a man. This is a lowlife crook, who wants to wreck Ukraine”
vili’s deportation to Tbilisi on at least one occasion in 2017. The former Georgian president is wanted in his homeland
on charges of corruption and abuse of power, and the Georgian authorities said on February 11 that if he arrives in Tbilisi he will be immediately arrested.
Despite having a reputation as a tough reformer, who famously sacked the entire traffic police force in Georgia to curb rampant corruption, Saakashvili is charged with abusing his position while in office. Amongst the accusations are trips to a US fat farm with his friend the mayor of Tbilisi that cost $40,000 per head and was paid for with public money. He is also accused of buying an expen- sive cashmere coat using public funds which he later returned to Georgia’s general prosecutor with a note to his suc- cessor Bidzina Ivanisvhili saying “I return [the coat] and you can use it as you like.”
Saakashvili denies any wrongdoing and says the Georgian charges are politically motivated.
for early elections, but while he is very vocal he has been unable to garner much political traction with the population.
His message of disappointment at the failure by the authorities to deliver on any meaningful reforms that actually improve the life of the man in the street should have resonated with
the electorate. "We will create a new broad political power, a platform of new forces, and our goal is to change the present, existing, so-called political elite, who are actually profiteers and social misfits," Saakashvili said at press
Find more Eastern Europe content at www.bne.eu/eastern-europe
Selected headlines from past month:
· Ukraine's Poroshenko "will not allow anybody to dictate something" to Kyiv during talks with IMF
· Gazprom must pay Ukraine's Naftogaz $2.5bn after arbitration decisions · Russia's Sberbank posts whopping 40% gain in profits to $13bn in 2017
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