Page 7 - bne_Magazine_March_2018

bne March 2018 The Month That Was I 7
Economics
Eastern Europe
Trade between Russia and Germany has increased by 23% in 2017 reach- ing $50bn, according to the data by the German-Russian Chamber of Com- merce (AHK). Russia imported German goods worth €19.7bn marking a 25% increase, while Russian shipments to Germany rose by roughly 21% over the same 12-month period.
Russia’s current account posted a surplus of $12.8bn in January 2018 versus $8bn surplus seen for the same month of last year, data by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) shows. The main driver for the growth was improved prices for commodities: oil prices accel- erated to $69 per barrel in January vs $55 in 2017.
Russia’s inflation has fallen even further below its historical minimum to 0.3% in January 2018 and 2.2% in annual terms, Rosstat reported. The fall in food prices has been pulling inflation down.
Ukraine's forex reserves slid to $18.444bn as of early February 2018, which is 2% less than a month earlier, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said.
Inflation in Ukraine in January 2018 ticked up 1.5% compared to 1% in December of the previous year, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported. Consumer prices also acceler- ated in January to 14.1% from 12.6% over the same period in the past year.
Central Europe
Czech GDP rose by a seasonally adjusted 5.1% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2017. Quarter-on-quarter, GDP rose by 0.5%. In the whole of 2017 GDP rose by 4.5%. Hungary's GDP accelerated to
a 4.4% y/y growth in the fourth quarter, up from a 3.9% increase in previous three months, beating analysts’ estimates.
Polish GDP growth pushed to a seasonally adjusted 4.3% y/y in the fourth quarter, according to a flash estimate released by the Central Statis- tical Office.
Hungary’s current account surplus rose to €885mn in the fourth quarter, up from €805mn a year earlier, as the December figures showed a surplus
of €501mn, up from €391mn in the previous month.
Slovak inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-on-year in January, and 0.8% month-on-month, the Slovak Statistics Office reported.
The Lithuanian consumer price index (CPI) grew 4% y/y in January, adding 0.1pp to the annual reading from the previous month.
Latvia's consumer price index (CPI) kicked off 2018 with a growth of 2% y/y in January, data released by the country's Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) showed.
Southeast Europe
The Turkish government’s central budget posted a surplus of TRY1.7bn (€361mn) in the first month of the year, representing a significant decline compared to TRY11.4bn worth of sur- plus in January 2017, Finance Minister Naci Agbal announced. The Turkish government targets a budget deficit of TRY65.9bn, or 1.9% of GDP, in 2018.
A World Bank official recommended that Montenegro make further cuts to public sector spending. The devel- opment bank’s country manager for Bosnia and Montenegro said Podgorica should keep focusing on consolidation of its public finances and on implemen- tation of its current fiscal strategy.
Romania’s GDP soared by 7% in 2017,
and 6.9% y/y in the final quarter of the year, according to a flash estimate from
the statistics office. Boosted by rampant consumption fuelled by a loose policy mix, the growth rate in 2017 – that was well above potential growth – will fuel inflation and is expected to slow down significantly in 2018.
Moldova reported strong indus- trial production growth in H2 2017. The industrial production index increased by 3.5% y/y in 2017 on average, according to data from Moldova’s statistics bureau BNS.
Eurasia
Georgia's foreign trade deficit increased by 13.9% y/y in January to $371.3mn. A commodity importer, Georgia's foreign trade has sustained chronic deficits, despite the govern- ment's efforts to promote exports.
Kazakhstan’s bilateral trade with fel- low members of the Eurasian Eco- nomic Union (EEU) grew by 30.2% y/y to $17.36bn in 2017. The figures mark a recovery from the 16.8% decline in trade with EEU countries seen in 2016, with the rebound driven by growing world oil prices and economic stabilisation in Russia.
Azerbaijan's economy grew by 2% y/y in January, its highest growth rate in two years. The non-oil economy grew the fastest, at 3.9% y/y, indicating signs of a recovery in consumption, and the oil and gas sectors grew by 0.5%, boosted by a hike in global oil prices.
www.bne.eu