Page 38 - RUSRptApr17

The total Russian wage bill is RUB19.6 trillion a year, of which some RUB10 trillion is earned in the black economy, according to MinFin.
4.5.3 Retail sector dynamics
March retail trade was slightly better than expected: its fell by just 0.4% y/y, according to Rosstat, versus a 1.6% y/y decline projected by the consensus and was very close to bankers expectation of zero growth. The key explanation for the above-expectation number was the base effect, as in March 2016 retail trade dropped by 5.0% y/y versus a 3.7% y/y decline in February 2016.
The dynamic of retail sales improved amid acceleration of real wage growth from +1.0% YoY in February to +1.5% YoY in March. However, this mainly reflects the statistical effect of deceleration of inflation, from 4.6% YoY to 4.3% YoY over the reporting period, while growth in nominal wages accelerated from 5.6% YoY to 5.8% YoY. The unemployment rate decreased from 5.6% to 5.4%.
Retail sales declined to - 2.6% y/y in February from -2.3% y/y in January overall, while in food the drop was more prominent, to - 4.7% y/y from -3.3% y/y. However, the non-food category saw a slight improvement, from -1.3% y/y to -0.6% y/y, according to Rosstat.
Russian retail trade continues to bottom out, while salaries continue to deliver growth momentum in real terms. However, the nationwide picture indicates that wage growth is skewed towards high-income regions such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.
38 RUSSIA Country Report April 2017 www.intellinews.com