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purchases, an increment of approximately $3bn in CBR reserves still remains unaccounted for.
7.1 FX issues
Alfa bank shares the view that ruble depreciation is a likely scenario for 2H17 and expect RUB65/$by the year-end ; however, the question is why the minister is so active in recent weeks to intervene verbally. “We believe that the goal of the cabinet is not so much to drive the ruble weaker but rather to prevent ruble appreciation. However, the bad news is that by making regular comments about the exchange rate forecast the government is reducing the efficiency of the CBR’s monetary policy, which is using the interest rate as the main tool of communication with the economy. It would not be possible to reduce the role of the exchange rate as the economic anchor if the cabinet keeps watching at it as the main economic indicator.”
Money transfers from Russia to Ukraine via foreign payment systems have been banned by a law signed by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, TASS reported on April 4, citing the official legal information portal of the Russian government. The decision last month of Russia’s largest state-owned bank Sberbank to accept documents of the separatist territories of East Ukraine has expanded the Russia-Ukraine rift further into the financial sphere .
Russian energy company Rosneft and state-controlled diamond miner Alrosa have started direct foreign exchange operations on the Moscow Exchange, potentially leading to lower ruble volatility. Russian companies normally trade currencies on the exchange via commercial banks or brokerages, paying commission on the transactions. But large companies got the option to trade directly since January, in a move aimed at boosting liquidity
62 RUSSIA Country Report April 2017 www.intellinews.com