Page 84 - RUSRptApr17

If a 50% payout to be implemented across the board then VTBC says the total potential 2017 payment would be an extra RUB 300mn of revenues for the state or an additional 140bp added to the 12 month RTS dividend yield 2017 dividend flow.
“We estimate the total dividend distributions from Russian companies in 2017F at RUB1.56 trillion ($27.4bn), which is +21% above the 2016 level. This total includes 2016 interims of RUB0.17 trillion, a 2016 final of RUB1.13 trillion and 2017 interims of RUB0.26 trillion. All the 2016 interims (with record dates in late December 2016 and January 2017) have already been distributed. The peak of the distribution process in 2017 is, as usual, June-August (70% of 2017 payments), with July being the highest month,” Zabotkin said.
This money is worth having and it is the biggest SOEs that could pay the most that are resisting the MinFin the most successfully. Consequently there is a lot of uncertainty over a lot of dividend money as we come into the high dividend season.
The largest contributors to the cash dividend stream from Russian companies in 2017 are Gazprom (FY16 payment: $4.0bn in total of which $1.9bn is due to the freely floating shares), Lukoil (1H16 payment (paid): $1.1bn/$0.5bn total/free float; 2H16 payment: $1.5bn/$0.7bn), Norilsk Nickel (9mo16 payment (paid): $1.2bn/$0.4bn; FY16 payment: $1.2bn/$0.4bn), Sberbank (FY16 payment: $2.0bn/$1.0bn) and Alrosa (FY16 payment: $1.2bn/$0.4bn).
Russian companies continue to pay amongst the highest dividend yields of any emerging market with the 12 month forward looking dividend yield of 4.9% for the companies listed on the dollar denominated Russia Trading System (RTS) and 4.6% for Russian companies included in the MSCI Russia index. That compares with 2.7% for MSCI emerging markets index and 2.2% for the S&P500 index.
84 RUSSIA Country Report April 2017 www.intellinews.com