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talks of swaps between Iran and Russia, but how exactly the Crimean option would work has not yet been disclosed.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the terminal has mostly been used for swaps with Azerbaijan, Kazakh- stan and Turkmenistan. is arrangement saw crude arrive at neka for processing at re neries in Tehran and Tabriz for domestic use in Iran. In return, Iran would export the same volume of crude from Kharg Island in the Gulf, though these arrangements too have been curtailed by sanctions.
In any case, sanctions have been imposed on Russia since it assumed control over the Crimean peninsula in 2014, meaning that even though the source of oil shipments could be obfuscated, scrutiny on the destination of such cargoes would remain equally high.
US “ exibility”
On the topic of sanctions, Zarif ’s deputy, Abbas Araghchi, said that the US had started to show some exibility on easing economic strictures.
He was quoted by the official IRnA news agency as saying that French President Emma- nuel Macron had met with his US counterpart Donald Trump during the G7 summit in Biar- ritz, noting that the US “showed some exibility in the licensing of Iranian oil sales”.
Araghchi added: “ is is a breach in the US maximum pressure policy, and a success for Iran’s policy of maximum resistance.”
Tehran has reduced its compliance with the JCPOA nuclear deal since Trump announced the
US’ departure from the accord.
However, there have been signs that Iran is
keen to step back from further escalation, with reports of Rouhani’s apparent openness for talks with Trump, which he has since rescinded fol- lowing a domestic backlash.
But Zarif told reporters this weekend that Tehran could “revert its decision to take the next step in reducing commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal”.
He referred to the “third step”, warning that if European powers had not made su cient e orts by September 5, Iran would take such measures. “ e government’s suggestions for the third step are clear and I will announce it o cially as soon asthe naldecisionistaken,”hesaidonSeptem- ber 1.
Escalation
Speaking to CnBC last week, Helima Cro of RBC Capital Markets said that “escalation” was becoming more likely.
“ e thing to really watch is if you get a retal- iatory cycle. If these Iranian-backed groups start targeting, for example, US servicemen in Iraq, and there are about 5,000 US servicemen in Iraq, if anything happens to those servicemen that really is a catalyst for this con ict going kinetic.”
For now, altercations between Iran and the US have been limited to proxy con ict in Yemen, but any direct aggression could quickly escalate, particularly considering the make-up of Trump’s hawkish administration and the growing pres- sure on Rouhani from hardliners to take a rmer stance on the US.
Week 35 03•September•2019 w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m P5
