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Opinion
September 21, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 20
way to get full international recognition, and “Kosovo’s position on the international arena has weakened over the past few months because its main ally, the US, is pressing for a quick compro- mise... However, its government has been un- able to develop a common strategy on talks with Serbia due to bitter rivalry within the government coalition.”
In addition to the potential for unrest within both states, and the practical and human challenges ahead should a land exchange be agreed, there are fears that such a deal could lead to a wider destabilisation of the region.
“Opponents of a territory swap worry that if the exchange finds enough support to be included in a final deal, it could inspire similar redesigns of other borders in the region,” wrote Stratfor ana- lysts on September 4.
The Stratfor report mentions, for example, Bos- nia’s Serb entity Republika Srpska, whose presi- dent, Milorad Dodik, has been pushing for
a referendum on secession from Bosnia and who repeatedly defies state-level institutions. Repub- lika Srpska “could demand independence or its annexation by Serbia, a development that could lead to [Bosnia’s] collapse. At the same time, ethnic Albanians, such as those in Macedonia, could likewise demand self-determination or
to be allowed to join Albania”.
“The takeaway from an exchange of territories to make Serbia and Kosovo more ethnically homog- enous could be that the idea of having multieth- nic countries in the Balkans has failed,” Stratfor analysts conclude.
Centre of attention
While this and other fraught questions remain unanswered as yet, the progress towards compro- mise on a variety of issues in the Western Balkans has been helped by the increased attention given to the region, especially by the European Com- mission and EU leaders.
This has been highlighted in Macedonia, which has been inundated by visits from top politicians all trying to persuade the country’s citizens to back the agreement with Greece. Merkel, EU High Representative Federica Mogherini and US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis have all visited the country in September.
The current attention given to Macedonia follows on from the European Commission’s release of its new enlargement strategy for the region back in Febru- ary, which for the first time gave some concrete target dates for accession. Serbia and Montenegro are now hoping to join by 2025, while candidate countries Albania and Macedonia are expected to start their negotiating processes in the near future.
Previously the enlargement process had slowed to a halt after Croatia became the last country
to join the bloc in 2013, but in the last few years the geopolitical situation has changed dramati- cally. The migration crisis of 2015 and early 2016 showed the importance of the Western Balkans to the EU’s security. The other factor is Russia: amid the growing rift between Russia and the West, the Western Balkans has become one of the regions where the two sides compete for influence, a point made explicitly by Mattis during his recent visit to Skopje. As new conflicts open up in Europe and the wider world, efforts to resolve the old conflicts of the Western Balkans are redoubling.