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this demonstration elicited the toughest action by police seen in several years.
Points of contention
There are several points of contention regarding this protest, the first involv- ing the demonstrators' right to assemble without permission from the city government. The Russian constitution guarantees the free right of assembly, but what is not clear is if demonstrators need a permit or not.
The city government offered Navalny an alternative venue, across town on Sakha- rov Prospect but Navalny defied the city and called for an assembly on Pushkin’s Square. The authorities are taking the line that a legal location was offered to the demonstrators, but they chose to ignore it. Indeed, the city usually offers protestors some location, but typically it is in out of the way suburbs of Moscow. The opposition claims that the constitu- tion guarantees their right to assembly and that no permit is needed; they only
careful not to inflame the situation. While the protests became a media cir- cus, garnering widespread coverage in the international media – although there was almost no coverage in the state- controlled domestic media – the number of Russians supporting the protests remains small.
According to the most recent indepen- dent Levada Center poll the propen- sity to protest with political demands remains at a historic low.
At the same time the Russian population remains largely satisfied with the gov- ernment and the majority believes the country is “going in the right direction,” according to Levada.
In an even more recent poll, a record high 81% of Russians believed that they were happy overall, according to the state-owned pollster, the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VTsIOM). The proportion hasn't sunk below 80%
and its press strongly criticise Putin and the heavy-handed use of police at events like this demonstration, in the March elec- tions Putin gained 10mn more votes than in the previous election in 2012 – and that is after subtracting the approximately 10-12% of extra votes that were added by the state to push Putin’s result over 50% of votes from the entire population.
With more than 56mn votes, almost 77% of the total number of registered voters, his March election win was his biggest ever and the largest by any post-Soviet Russian leader, something he and his allies say gave him an unequivocal mandate to govern. In 2012, Putin won
a total of 46.6mn votes or 63.6% of the vote. In both elections, statisticians have shown that the Kremlin injected some 5-12% of extra votes into the system to push Putin’s result over key constitu- tional thresholds. However, in both votes even dropping these extra votes from the counting leaves Putin clearly command- ing a simple majority of genuine votes.
In other words Putin is genuinely popu- lar and “Fortress Russia” and “Reject the west” messages resonate with a large and growing part of the population.
Putin has dismissed Navalny as a trouble- maker bent on sowing chaos on behalf of Washington.
On the other side of the balance sheet, Navalny commands the support of only 2% of the population in opinion polls. Clearly his popularity is suppressed by the total control the Kremlin exercises over the airwaves, but it remains open to debate how well he would do if the media was free – better than 2% surely, but as things stand it is unlikely he would be able to seriously challenge Putin’s ratings even in an open society.
“The order came down not to jail me before Putin’s inauguration”
need to inform the state of where and when the demonstrators will assemble and are free to choose the location.
The confusion was acknowledged by the European Union (EU) in a statement, which said: “Even if some of the demon- strations were not authorised in the loca- tion where they took place, this cannot justify police brutality and mass arrests.”
Despite the arrests, almost all of those detained were immediately released. Shortly after midnight on May 6, Navalny said on social media that he had been released from custody in advance of a court appearance on May 11.
“Apparently the order came down not to ‘jail me before the (Putin) inaugura- tion,’” wrote Navalny.
The government was keen to break up the demonstration but it is still being
for two years. Among the age group
of 18-24, 88% of the respondents said they considered themselves happy.
And for wealthy people, the proportion was as high as 95%, while even 55%
of those who were unsatisfied with their financial situation said they were happy.
While there is clearly a small and vocal group of Russians that are increasingly critical of the Kremlin, what is not clear is how widespread these attitudes are. Although the international community
Find more Eastern Europe content at www.bne.eu/eastern-europe
Selected headlines from past month:
· Moscow mayor Sobyanin's ratings way ahead of opposition for mayoral elections
· Ukraine attempting to enforce Stockholm court $2.6bn award on Russia’s Gazprom · Ukrainian security forces stage killing of Russian journalist in baffling stunt
· Russia to extend Turkish Stream to Bulgaria, PM Borissov says
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