Page 55 - mag bne_November2017_20171102

bne November 2017
Opinion 55
Compromise doesn't come easy
Compromise clearly doesn't come easy to this demagogue but on this occasion Trump had to content himself with refusing to recertify US recognition of Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal – something he is asked to do every 90 days and which
he has done twice before – and placing the ball squarely in the court of Congress. Find me a fix within 60 days or I'll terminate US participation in the deal, he essentially said, while not mentioning the small difficulty that, given it is a multilateral deal, the other five major powers that signed up for it will be entitled to try and continue with it whatever sanctions the US attempts to throw at them. The sight of that might be painful
to American businesses that are already having to frustratingly stand by while European, Russian, Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and other counterparts pluck at the Islamic Republic's low-hanging fruit. That was made accessible to foreign investors when, in early 2016, the deal removed crippling restrictions on Tehran's economic activity in return for an inspection regime that bars Iran's path to developing a nuclear weapon.
"In the event we are not able to reach a solution working with Congress and our allies, then the agreement will be termi- nated," Trump said during his White House announcement, adding. "It is under continuous review and our participation can be cancelled by me, as president, at any time."
Describing Iran as a “fanatical regime” that sponsors terrorism – something many analysts point out can be more easily said about Trump's ally Saudi Arabia – Trump said he was intent on denying the Iranians “all paths to a nuclear weapon”. The International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA), which has eight times vouched for Tehran's compliance with the JCPOA, says the current deal is already doing that very effectively but Trump wants to see the removal of the “sunset clauses” in the agreement, one of which permits the lifting of restrictions
on Iran's nuclear enrichment programme after 2025. He also wants to see restrictions brought in to curb Iran's ballistic missile development programme, but the difficulty with that is that the authors of the accord never set out to include it. Nor did they seek to address Iran's backing of various armed groups in the Syrian, Yemeni and other conflicts of the Middle East, but again Trump wants linkage to this activity and Tehran's projection of its influence across the Middle East.
Strafing the Guards
The US president also demanded that new sanctions
be introduced against Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC). Though he stopped short of designating the IRGC as “terrorist” – as some observers had feared he might – Trump strafed the Guards by calling them the "corrupt personal terror force of Iran's leader", an incitement to those hardliners in Iran who themselves would like to see the end of accords with what they see as the duplicitous West, but again nothing to do with the existing JCPOA. It is concerned with matters such as curbing Iran's uranium stockpile and ensuring the country honours its pledges not to build any more heavy- water reactors for 15 years and allow in nuclear inspectors.
In response to Trump's announcement, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the US was "more than ever isolated". "As long as our rights are guaranteed, as long as our interests are served, as long as we benefit from the nuclear deal, we will respect and comply with the deal," Rouhani stated.
“Find me a fix within 60 days or I'll terminate US participation in the deal”
Yukiya Amano, head of the IAEA, said he was satisfied Iran was implementing the deal according to "the world's most robust nuclear verification regime".
EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said that there had been no violations of the JCPOA by Iran and remarked that it was not in the power of "any president in the world" to terminate the seven-country agreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, congratulated Trump for "boldly confronting Iran's terrorist regime" while Saudi Arabia backed the "firm strategy".
Over to you Congress. After all, there are several billion dollars of Boeing aircraft supply deals drafted with the Iranians that are awaiting your answer.
bne has a full roster of columnists and opinion-makers, among them:
Mark Galeotti Liam Halligan Suna Erdem
Chris Weafer David Cecire Ben Aris
Selected headlines from the past month:
· OPINION: Russia is growing fond of ICOs
· OPINION: Can Romania and Bulgaria tame corruption? · Czech general election: Saying Yes to what exactly?
You can find all bne’s comment at
www.intellinews.com/opinion
www.bne.eu