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an average exchange rate of UAH29.50/$(vs. UAH27.00/$previously). Nominal GDP is forecasted at UAH4,000bn (vs. UAH4,510bn previously), while the average monthly wage is expected at UAH11,000 (vs. UAH12,500 previously). The unemployment forecast has been revised to 9.4% from 8.1% previously.
The fall of the Ukrainian economy under the optimistic scenario of the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) will amount to 5% of GDP in 2020​, Yulia Kovaliv, the deputy head of the President's Office, said adding that teh situation remains highly unpredictable. "The situation is changing every day," she said on March 23.
4.0​ Real Economy 4.1​ Industrial production
Ukraine's industrial output fell 1.5% y/y in February after sliding 5.1% y/y in January​, the State Statistics Service reported on March. 23. Seasonally adjusted output decreased 0.2% m/m. In 2M20, industrial output dropped 3.1% y/y.
The data is probably out of date even before it was released as the coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in Ukraine accelerate and the government starts enforcing social distancing on the population. However, the data shows the economy was already slowing before the outbreak began.
Manufacturing output slid 0.4% y/y in February (after a 3.2% y/y decline in January). In particular, machinery production fell 13.2% y/y (after a 10.5% y/y decrease in January). Metallurgy output dropped 4.3% y/y (vs. a 10.3% y/y decline in February). Meanwhile, food production increased 6.6% y/y (vs. 2.9% y/y growth in January) and the chemical industry surged 22.5% y/y (after a 24.4% y/y advance in January).
Mining output fell 4.1% y/y in February, after declining 4.5% y/y January In particular, coal production plunged 15.3% y/y, oil and natural gas production slid 0.2% y/y, and iron ore output dropped 5.6% y/y. The supply of electricity and natural gas slid 1.8% y/y in February after an 11.8% y/y drop in January.
Regionally, the steepest declines were observed in the Ukraine-controlled Luhansk (-46.5% y/y), Zakarpattia (-13.6% y/y) and Dnipropetrovsk (-11.2% y/y) regions. Growth was strongest in the Kherson (20.8% y/y), Lviv (15.0% y/y) and Vinnytsia (13.8% y/y) regions.
“February’s slowdown in industrial decline would be an encouraging development if not for the sever lockdown measures introduced by the government at the end of the previous week in its attempt to counteract the spread of coronavirus infection throughout Ukraine,” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note. “It’s already obvious that every day of the lockdown has an extremely negative effect on economic activity, including the looming threat of a complete shutdown of industrial enterprises.” We are observing the current developments, both in the global and domestic economies, in order to formulate our vision on Ukraine’s industrial development in 2020.
Ukraine’s State Statistics Service has revised its industrial output index for 2019, its web site indicated on March 2. ​In addition to the index's regular annual correction, this year's modification also involved the adjustment to the base year of 2016 (instead of 2010), which led to change of weights of sub-industries in the index.
18​ UKRAINE Country Report​ April 2018 ​ ​www.intellinews.com