Page 34 - UKRRptApr20

6.0​ Public Sector 6.1​ Budget
Budget and debt indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
State budget revenues, UAH bln
231.7
209.7
240.6
314.6
346
339.2
357.1
534.6
616.3
793.4
928.1
1053
% of GDP
24.4%
23.0%
22.3%
24.2%
24.6%
23.2%
22.5%
26.9%
25.9%
26.6%
26.1%
26.2%
State budget expenditures, UAH bln
244.2
245.2
304.9
338.1
399.4
403.9
435.1
579.8
686.4
841.3
987.4
1121
% of GDP
25.8%
26.8%
28.3%
26.0%
28.4%
27.6%
27.4%
29.2%
28.8%
28.2%
27.7%
27.9%
State budget balance, UAH bln
-12.5
-35.5
-64.3
-23.6
-53.4
-64.7
-78
-45.2
-70.1
-47.9
-59.3
-68.4
% of GDP
-1.3%
-3.9%
-6.0%
-1.8%
-3.8%
-4.4%
-4.9%
-2.3%
-2.9%
-1.6%
-1.7%
-1.7%
Public debt, UAH bln
189
318
432
473
516
584
1,101
1,572
1,930
2142
2169
2410
% GDP
20.0%
34.8%
40.1%
36.4%
36.7%
39.9%
69.4%
79.0%
81.0%
71.8%
60.9%
59.9%
Source: SP Advisors
The state budget deficit of Ukraine could grow from 2.1% to 7% of GDP this year​, the deputy head of the presidential office has said, as reported by Ukrainian language media. “We take into account both the economic decline and the additional costs that the state will incur in the fight against coronavirus... If by the beginning of the year we expected a budget deficit of approximately 2% of GDP, today we expect around 7%,” Yulia Kovaliv said during an online discussion organized by the European Business Association on March 23.
6.1.1 ​Budget dynamics - results
The budget deficit will increase five-fold this year, to 10% of GDP​, predicts Maria Repko, Deputy Director of Kyiv’s centre for Economic Strategy. Spending on medical care will double, while revenues will drop along with the GDP, she said March 30 in an online conference. To win the IMF package, Ukraine committed last fall to a budget deficit of 2% of GDP. Given the world financial crisis, the IMF is expected to waive that requirement.
Ukraine’s general budget revenue rose 4.5% y/y to UAH97.9bn in February ​after sliding 1.6% y/y in January, the State Treasury reported on March 25. General budget expenditures rose 9.5% y/y to UAH97.7bn after increasing 3.0% y/y in the prior month. The general budget balance switched to a surplus of UAH0.5bn from a UAH3.1bn deficit in January.
Tax revenue jumped 5.9% y/y in February, after a 2.8% y/y decline in January. In particular, net VAT revenue advanced 80.3% y/y after more than doubling in January (gross VAT revenue rose 13.5% y/y, while VAT reimbursement dropped 17.3% y/y). In addition, personal income tax revenue grew 12.9% y/y (after a 15.9% y/y rise in January). Resource royalty payments surged 63.9% y/y (vs. a 70.7% y/y drop in January). Meanwhile, VAT revenue on imported
34​ UKRAINE Country Report​ April 2018 ​ ​www.intellinews.com