Page 15 - GEORptAug21

3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Georgia’s GDP up 11.5% y/y in Jan-May
Georgia’s estimated real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in May amounted to 25.8% y/y, while for January to May it was 11.5%, according to a rapid estimate by national statistics office Geostat.
May saw growth, year on year, in almost all sectors. Significant contributions were observed in manufacturing, financial and insurance activities, trade, real estate activities, hotels and restaurants, construction, transportation and storage.
The Georgian economy shrunk by 6.2% in 2020.
TBC Capital has updated its growth forecast for 2021, projecting a 10.5% economic advance, Business Media reported. According to the bank, despite the low rate of coronavirus vaccination at the moment in the country, a strong economic recovery is expected.
The economy will expand by another 6.5% in 2022 and 5.5% in 2023, according to TBC’s revised model.
Tourism revenues are expected to recover to 40% of what was seen in 2019. Exports are predicted to increase by 23.5% compared to 2020, while imports move up by only 21% y/y. Remittances are seen as increasing by 24.5% compared to 2020. Foreign direct investment is anticipated as gaining increase by 10% compared to 2020. In the banking sector, lending would post annual growth of 16.2%.
Speaking in parliament on June 25, Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili said that according to the 10-year plan, Georgia's GDP should increase to $10,000 per capita by 2030. That would mean a 2.3-fold increase from $4,274 today.
GDP per capita in current prices over the last 10 years, despite the ambitious promises of the government, is virtually unchanged. It stands at about the same as in 2011, argued TBC Bank’s chief economist Otar Nadaraia on a sceptical note.
Nadaraia said that a steady 10% growth rate could only be achieved if new sectors were developed.
15 GEORGIA Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com