Page 24 - UKRRptSept21

and its peak will be in September – 10.5%, follows from the materials of EMEA Emerging Markets report.
J.P. Morgan expects that the hryvnia exchange rate in October-December 2021 will be at Hr 27.50/$1, in January-March 2022 – Hr 28/$1, in April-June – Hr 28.50/$1.
At the same time, J.P. Morgan envisages an increase in the key policy rate of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) from the existing 8% per annum to 8.5% at the next revision on September 9, and in the first quarter of 2022 – to 9% with a further increase to 9.25% in the second quarter.
The balance of payments deficit in 2021 is expected at 1.7% of GDP, next year – at 3.5% of GDP, the analysts said,
Oxford Economics presents more sober forecast. While official Kyiv is claiming that the economy is rebounding, not everyone’s so optimistic. Oxford Economics has just downgraded the forecast for GDP growth in 2021 to 4% from 4.4% in the July forecast. Moreover, the risks of further lockdowns and likely tightening of fiscal and monetary policy have led to a deterioration in the forecast for economic growth in 2022 from 4.2% to 3.5% It expects inflation to average 9.2% this year, with further declines to 6.7% and 5.4% in 2022 and 2023. It also stresses that in 2022, Ukraine will have to pay $6.5bn on public debt.
24 UKRAINE Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com