Page 6 - UKRRptSept21

last tranche would be lost if it does.
Although relations with the US have cooled – Zelenskiy planned trip to meet US president Joe Biden at the White House was delayed again to September – there are also talks about a possible US guarantee for future Eurobond issues. This scheme has already been used at least once and allows Ukraine to issue debt on the international capital markets very cheaply. A US-backed bond issue could also help Ukraine get through the debt redemption spike in September and so is likely to go ahead as despite rising local bond issues and tax receipts, Ukraine will still struggle to cover the payments without raiding its hard currency reserves. Ukraine had $29bn of reserves in August, or about 4.4 months of import cover, which is enough to ensure the stability of the hryvnia but not enough to meet its debt obligations.
On the political front Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy campaign against the oligarchs continues as does his attempts to pressure Ukraine’s western partners into more firmly committing to supporting Ukraine in its fight with Russia.
A noticeable crackdown on corruption has begun with more state officials being investigated and arrested for running various scams. State-owned enterprises like the national railway company have been targeted.
At the same time Zelenskiy has been consolidating his hold on power with several changes at the top. The all powerful interior minister Arsen Avakov quit in August for unspecified reasons and was widely considered the second most powerful man in the country after Zelenskiy himself. In what many see as a related development the authorities also cracked down on the far right Azov movement that has been running various scams and extortion rackets with impunity and were seen as under the control of Avakov.
Zelenskiy has already taken control of the General Prosecutor’s office by appointing Iryna Venediktova in March 2020 as part of the last big government reshuffle, who is considered a Zelenskiy-loyalist.
There have been reports that Zelenskiy plans another major government reshuffle in the autumn as the process of consolidating power in his own hands continues.
This year Zelenskiy has launched a campaign to get Ukraine’s EU partners to commit to the country’s eventual membership in both the EU and Nato. “We can sit in the waiting room forever,” he told a French newspaper shortly before meeting French President Emmanuel Macron. However, Ukraine is very unlikely to be admitted to either body any time in the foreseeable future – largely because of Russia’s objections, which sees those membership deals as red line issues.
However, to make sure Ukraine stays high on the international agenda Zelenskiy organised the first Crimea Platform summit and a grand parade to celebrate Ukraine’s 30 years of independence. A total of 46 countries,
6 UKRAINE Country Report September 2021 www.intellinews.com