Page 24 - BELRptApr19

He also confirmed that the EBRD has not yet decided on the amount of stake, which can reach 20-25% at the most. It can be a smaller package of shares. “If there is a formal proposal from the bank, then we are set to complete all the procedures by the end of the year,” the minister said.
BelTA reported earlier, that head of the EBRD representative office in Belarus Alexander Pivovarsky told the media that the EBRD expects to complete the stake purchase transaction in H1 2019.
Stable political and macroeconomic situation in the country was an important part of investors' considerations, Chakrabarti added.
“If we agree on something with the president and the government of Belarus, we are 100% sure that this will be translated into practice. In many other countries the situation is different. Politics in Belarus is very stable. If a decision is taken, it will always come to fruition. This is very good for the investment climate and is very encouraging for foreign investors,” Chakrabarti said.
The EBRD has been expanding its actively in Belarus in the last few years and is targeting investments in infrastructure projects and renovate bridges in Belarus. Two major projects - estimated at a total of €150-160mn – will cover 60 bridges, the minister informed.
6.0 Public Sector 6.1 Budget
The budget is almost in balance. Fitch's measure of general government balance (consolidated government including Social Protection Fund and off balance sheet expenditure related to guarantees and financial sector transfers) is estimated to have recorded a near-balanced position at -0.1% of GDP in 2017. This estimate incorporates a consolidated government surplus of 2.4% of GDP reflecting a combination of revenue growth derived from higher oil prices and a more dynamic economy and continued expenditure restraint.
Fitch expects the general government to record low deficits of 0.8% and 1.2% of GDP in 2018 and 2019, respectively, reflecting lower surpluses at the consolidated level plus potential cost related to the materialisation of guarantees, banking sector capitalisation and the asset clean-up process. We forecast the "augmented deficit", which includes off-budget programme lending - adding to government debt - to be a little higher at 1.8% of GDP in 2018.
Fitch estimates that government debt (including guarantees) rose to 55.7% of GDP at end-2017 , still below the 'B' median. Belarus's debt is highly exposed to currency volatility (90% is FC-denominated), and interest rate risk (50% floating rate). Fitch includes government guarantees, estimated at 10.1% of GDP, in its total debt calculations, due to the high likelihood that the government will need to meet state-owned enterprises' repayment obligations.
24 BELARUS Country Report April 2019 www.intellinews.com