Page 53 - RusRPTJul19

6.1.1 Budget dynamics - results
Russia's federal budget posted a surplus of RUB1.1 trillion ($17bn) in January-May 2019, according to the data by the Finance Ministry. The surplus is more than half of this year's target surplus of RUB1.9 trillion or 1.7% of GDP in the budget for the full year.
The government's full-year surplus target is based on Brent oil prices of $65 per barrel average and RUB65.1 ruble to US dollar exchange rate. "We expect the surplus to come in at 2.5% of GDP, based on forecasts of $70/bbl for Brent and RUB65.5 for USD/RUB," Sberbank CIB commented on June 14.
Federal budget revenues increased by 8.6% year-on-year in May alone and by 13.8% y/y for January-May overall, reaching RUB7.9 trillion. Non-oil and gas revenues were up 18.9% y/y as of end of May, while oil and gas revenues rose only 7.7% y/y.
"Meanwhile, expenditures rose by only 5.8% y-o-y in May and 4.1% in 5m19. After a RUB130.9bn downward revision to spending in April, expenditures in 5m19 came in at RUB6.7 trillion. Spending growth in 5m19 was below the 9.5% pace envisioned in the government's current plan for the full year," Sberbank notes,
Russia posted RUB683bn ($10.6bn) or 2.1% of GDP surplus for the federal budget in January-April of 2019, the Finance Ministry said on May 17. The budget showed RUB6.4 trillion in revenues (32% of annual target) and RUB5.7 trillion of expenditures (31.5% of annual target).
Notably, the first-quarter surplus has been revised from previous 2.2% of GDP to 2.7% of GDP or RUB666bn. In April alone the federal budget posted RUB17.4bn surplus, making a 0.2% of GDP surplus. The average Urals oil price in January-April stood at $65.2 per barrel.
This year the ministry plans to post a RUB1.9 trillion surplus of 1.7% of GDP. In 2018 the federal budget recorded the first surplus since 2011, posting a record surplus of 2.7% of GDP.
53 RUSSIA Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com