Page 63 - RusRPTJul19

Source: Central Bank of Russia
In the first quarter of 2019, real disposable incomes of the population decreased by 2.3% in annual terms. In 2014–2017 revenues fell, and in 2018 increased by only 0.1%, taking into account the payment of 5,000. pensioners in January 2017
In 2018, Russians took a record RUB12.5 trillion in banks, and their debts reached RUB14.9 trillion. In 2019, growth in retail lending continued: in January – May 2019, debts increased by 8.1% (in 2018, over the same period, by 7.3%). But in May, the growth slowed down a bit - from 23.8% per annum in April to 23.3%. The debt burden in the coming year will reach a historic maximum, said Maxim Petronevich, Otkritie Bank Senior Economist.
The growth of the loan portfolio is accompanied by an increase in overdue debts: in January-April, overdue loans for more than three months increased by 0.3%. The ratio of loan payments to disposable incomes of all households is growing: as of April 1, 2019, it was 8.4%, having increased over the year by 0.9 pp. And if you take only those who took a loan, then the average borrowers They spent 43.9% of their income to service their debt, said CBR governor Elvira Nabiullina.
The Central Bank is already trying to slow the issuance of retail loans. To do this, it increases the allowances to risk coefficients depending on the cost of the loan: the higher the rate, the higher the weighted capital loan when calculating the ratios. Short-term loans with high interest rates starting from October will be unprofitable to issue, warns managing director of Validation Expert RA, Yury Belikov, but banks can compensate for this by increasing the loan term, which will spread the debt burden. This loophole has yet to be settled by the Central Bank, he says.
The debt of the population in relation to GDP is small (up to 2018, 14% of GDP is retail lending, 7% is consumer), so the measures already taken and announced are enough to limit the risks.
63 RUSSIA Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com