Page 92 - RusRPTJul19

9.1.6 Agriculture sector news
Russia's meat output growth in 2019 could be the slowest in a decade
due to oversaturation of the domestic market and declining real disposable income, Kommersant daily reported on June 3 citing the presentation of Sovekon analytical centre. As local producers helped by counter-sanctions banning food imports managed to squeeze out imports almost completely (imports of meat decline by 37% in 2018 to 0.4mn tonnes), they are pushing against structural limits. The growth of output of poultry and meat is expected to amount to only 0.5% to 15mn tonnes, s compared to 2.5% in 2018, 4.4% in 2017, 3.7% in 2016, 4.3% in 2015, and 3.7% in 2014. In the poultry and pork segment, Russian producers are filling almost all of domestic market, and in the conditions of slow demand would have to cut prices. However, possible opening up of markets in Asia and Middle East could possibly boost export by 40%, providing support.
Russia may lose its title of world’s biggest grain exporter to Ukraine this year. Agricultural forecasting agencies IKAR and SovEkon downgraded Russia’s wheat export outlooks due to partial droughts for the 2019-2020 marketing season that kicks off on July 1, Reuters reported on June 20.
IKAR downgraded the wheat exports outlook by 0.5mn tonnes to 36.5mn
92 RUSSIA Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com