Page 27 - RusRPTMay19

4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-2018 Indicators
Annual GDP (y/y, %)
3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7 -0.5 1.5 1.5
GDP (per capita) (USD)
14,079 15,531 13,873 9,055 8,759 10,743 /
GDP: Private consumption expenditure (USD mn)
1,116,950 1,214,990 1,111,244 720,256 680,455 826,389 207,035
GDP: Public consumption expenditure (USD mn)
GDP: Gross fixed capital formation (USD mn)
391,097 425,831 375,081 244,282 236,063 283,696 79,723
471,337 496,982 428,573 276,240 280,350 342,294 58,303
GDP: Exports (USD mn)
524,697 527,266 497,834 343,543 285,772 357,816 102,956
GDP: Imports (USD mn)
Source: CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
317,177 314,967 286,669 182,719 182,347 227,502 54,820
Russia’s industrial output grew 1.2% on the year and 10.3% on the month in March after rising 4.1% and 0.4% on the month in February, the Federal State Statistics Service said in a report on April 15.
The result was a slowdown after February’s surprisingly strong result. Russia’s manufacturing PMI index also put in a much better than expected result in February.
Output of the mineral resource industry grew by 4.3% on the year in March, of the processing industry by 0.3%, of water supply, wastewater treatment and waste recycling by 3.7%, and production of power, gas supply fell by 4.8%.
In January–March, industrial output grew 2.1%.
In manufacturing, from the data currently available, VTBC thinks that the slowdown is likely related to lower output in the petrochemical segment.
At the component level, mining has been steadily and marginally slowing, from +5.1% y/y in February to +4.3 y/y. Electricity generation suffered an even more visible setback, declining -4.8% y/y, compared with -1.1% y/y earlier in February.
Adjusted for seasonality and working days, industrial production declined - 0.8% m/m SWDA in March vs +1.2% m/m SWDA in February.
Mining & quarrying is mostly supported by the increase in oil output to 11mn bbl/day, which the Russian oil industry achieved in 2H18. Current output is exactly at 11mn bbl/day vs. approximately 10.7mn bbl/day a year ago. This means that output growth in mining will likely slowdown in 2H19, back to
27 RUSSIA Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com