Page 60 - RusRPTMay19

Second, despite the ruble’s rally, it has been held back by the threat of tighter US sanctions. A premium opened up when the US Senate introduced a new bill in the middle of February. Two months later, the ruble is still trading with a discount of about 4% relative to its past relationship with oil prices.
A jump in oil prices and local month-end taxes that boost demand for the ruble led the Russian currency to its highest level against the euro since last April as of April 23. The ruble also hit a one month-peak versus the dollar on Monday, the news agency’s report said. At 0723 GMT, the ruble had gained 0.5% to 71.71 against the euro, after briefly hitting its strongest level since April 6 last year at 71.65. Against the dollar, the Russian currency firmed 0.5% to 63.76, a level last seen on March 22.
Russia’s Minfin’s interventions are expected to remain stable in April
(RUB negative) According to our calculations, the extra oil and gas revenues will increase to RUB 304 bn in March (higher than in February due to mom oil price growth). Though, the final amount of the regular interventions is likely to remain stable mom (as Minfin made a considerable correction to the final amount of FX purchases the month before). The total amount of interventions (regular and delayed) along with expected debt repayment peak will not be fully covered by the C/A surplus, which will put negative pressure on the RUB.
60 RUSSIA Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com