Page 5 - AfrElec Week 10

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
One good point was that this growth rate has achieved the Paris Agreement target of 15% growth for solar and wind.
However, the report warned that maintaining this high growth rate as volumes scale up would require a concerted effort from all regions.
On the positive side, record low wind and solar prices in 2019 should give hope that com- pound growth rates can be maintained above 15%.
US
In the US, coal generation fell by 16%, as many generators switched to gas, representing 113 TWh of output. Digging down into US perfor- mance, 65% of former coal capacity was replaced by gas, with only 35% being replaced by soar and wind.
Yet the use of gas effectively undermines the move away from coal in the US in terms of cli- mate change. Since 2007, US CO2 power sector emissions have dropped by 19-32%, whereas they have shrunk by 43% in the EU.
By comparison, in the EU, the 24% fall was driven by countries leap-frogging from coal to wind and solar. This means that EU solar and wind replaced all the shuttered coal capacity, with wind and solar generation exceeding coal generation for the first time in the EU in 2019.
Oil influence
The report came out as oil prices collapsed to $30 per barrel as Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to extend OPEC+ production cuts, leading to a flood of cheap oil, with much of it reaching Asia.
While oil markets are in flux, IEA executive director Fatih Birol warned that coal, gas and renewables would also suffer. The coronavirus has also led to falling demand for energy and a
reduction in industrial and economic activity in several countries, led by China.
“The coronavirus crisis is affecting a wide range of energy markets – including coal, gas and renewables – but its impact on oil markets is particularly severe because it is stopping people and goods from moving around, dealing a heavy blow to demand for transport fuels,” said Birol.
“With a combination of a massive supply overhang and a significant demand shock at the same time, the situation we are witnessing today seems to have no equal in oil market history,” he continued.
What this means for coal and emissions is not known. Emissions and coal generation are likely to fall in 2020, again as a result of this one-off event.
In the longer term, reduced economic activ- ity, or a slow rebound from the current crisis, will see electricity demand decline, especially in markets such as China that saw growth in 2019.
The road ahead
In terms of climate change, the report concludes that the progress of 2019 is not enough to meet the commonly held energy transition bench- marks, especially the 1.5 degree target.
Looking ahead, the IPCC and IEA’s model- ling both show that immediate and aggressive action to cut coal generation is critical to limiting climate change.
There were some good performances in 2019, but much more needs to be done to promote the rapid replacement of coal by cleaner gen- erating fuels. These longer-term trends will not be overtly affected by the current oil crisis, but energy demand is now a variable and unknown factor could that hold back emissions growth in the coming years. ™
The progress of 2019 is not enough to meet the commonly held energy transition benchmarks, especially the 1.5 degree target
Week 10 12•Month•2020 w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m
P5