Page 16 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 76.7 81 84.5 89.7 94.2 98.1 102.2
Real GDP (% yoy) 4.8 2.1 3 4 2.2 2 2.5
Industrial output (% yoy) 6.7 4.7 3.2 4.4 1.2 3.3 4
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 11.5 9.6 8.1 6.5 5.8 6 5.6
Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) 3.1 3.4 4.7 7 5 5.5 4.5
Producer prices (avg, % yoy) -4.2 -4.3 1.9 4.9 2.6 2 1.5
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) -0.3 -0.5 1.3 2.5 2.7 2.5 2
Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) -0.5 0.2 1.9 1.9 3 2.3 2
General budget balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -2.5 -1 -1.1 -1.1 -1 -1
Public debt (% of GDP) 51.9 52 51.3 49.4 48.4 49.3 50.4
Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -2.7 -1.9 -2.6 -2.8 -2.8 -2.3
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 84.3 91 111.4 113.6 117 116.7 116.1 Source: National sources, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Slovakia’s economic growth is expected to decelerate in 2020 before recovering slightly in 2021,​mostly due to weaker external demand that will negatively impact exports. GDP is expected to increase by 2.2% in 2020 and 2.6% in 2021, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with domestic demand being relatively strong, mostly thanks to private consumption, which will be maintained by a resistant labour market with low unemployment.
The European Commission is more optimistic and expects Slovakia’s real GDP growth to reach 2.6% and 2.7% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, also influenced by significant salary growth, record-low unemployment and strong private consumption.
Private consumption is expected to grow at a robust pace due to the tight labour market and rising social transfers. Faster growth in private consumption is considered an upside risk, as wages could increase more than projected and the high saving rate could decline.
The inflation rate is projected to remain slightly above 2% in the coming two years, at 2.5% in 2020 and 2.2% in 2021, driven mainly by services, food prices and energy. Services price inflation is forecast to remain elevated as a result of rapid wage growth.
The unemployment rate is foreseen to decline to a record low of 5.9%
16​ CESE Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com