Page 19 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020

Opposition parties ended a 13-year losing streak at the polls (European, national and local) gaining control of a dozen large cities including the capital in the October local government elections. The recipe for success was to field joint candidates. The governing parties underestimated the viability of the "rainbow coalition", which consisted of former extreme-right, now centrist Jobbik and leftist-liberal parties.
Polls still show the dominance of Fidesz with 3mn supporters, or 52% of decided voters, while 44% of decided voters back one of the seven opposition parties. The ruling party looks rock-solid in rural areas, whereas it is losing the young, educated urban voters in large numbers.
With no election scheduled for 2020, the political landscape will be characterised by cooperation — or more likely the lack of it — between Fidesz and the opposition at local level. Analysts expect further conflicts as the government will try to take more power back from local governments. Budapest's new liberal mayor has called for an alliance of free cities enhancing corporation of cites led by opposition mayors.
This chimes with the same initiative at an international level. The mayors of Warsaw, Prague, Bratislava and Budapest, who share liberal values, have recently launched a new alliance and urged the EU to bypass national governments and fund cities directly.
The initiative mirrors the cooperation of the Visegrad 4 (V4) countries at national level, backed strongly by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Hungary's illiberal strongman sees the V4 as the driving force behind the EU with economic growth exceeding multifold that of the block's average.
The ruling party and propaganda media hailed the appointment of Ursula von der Leyen as head of the European Commission, but Orban's first pick for Hungary’s commissioner post was rejected.
The rule of law inquiry under the Article 7 procedure against Hungary will continue in 2020 under the rotating presidencies of Croatia and Germany. More conflicts are expected between Fidesz and the European People's Party (EPP) after the election of Donald Tusk as EPP president. The former president of the European Council sent an unequivocal message to Orban after his appointment.
Some members of the EPP have called for the expulsion of Fidesz from the party group and these voices are likely to be louder this year unless Orban makes concessions. Expulsion from the EPP would be a serious blow to the Hungarian PM, who hoped that eurosceptics would make a breakthrough in the May 2019 European Parliament election, but so far has no intention of leaving the largest block in the European Parliament.
19​ CESE Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com