Page 58 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020

group created by Maya Manolova. A former member of the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and former ombudsman, she narrowly lost the race for Sofia mayor in October 2019. Manolova claims she will not turn her civil project into a political party, but analysts believe she could decide to join the race for the next parliament.
2.4 ​Politics - Croatia
Croatia is holding presidential elections in December 2019-January 2020, with the first round on December 22 and the second on January 5.
Despite the crowded field, the election appears to be mainly a race between the incumbent Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, former prime minister Zoran Milanovic, the candidate of Croatia’s main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party, and singer Miroslav Skoro.
The latest polls put Grabar-Kitarovic barely one percentage point ahead of Milanovic with Skoro just a few points behind. Should Skoro make it through to the second round, he is likely to defeat either of the two frontrunners.
Croatia’s first female president, Grabar-Kitarovic is hoping to remain in the post for a second term. While Croatia’s presidency is a largely ceremonial position, she can point to her role representing Croatia abroad. Some specific issues she has championed include the regional Three Seas Initiative, and her efforts to reduce emigration and reach out to the Croatian diaspora. Internationally, she is perhaps best known for her enthusiastic support for Croatia’s team in the 2018 World Cup.
Her closest rival, Milanovic, is looking to make a political comeback after his party lost the 2015 and 2016 general elections to the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), after which he stepped down from the SDP’s leadership and announced his retirement.
Given the presidency is a largely ceremonial role, some of its main significance will be as a precursor to the 2020 parliamentary elections, which must be held by December 23, 2020.
A failure by Grabar-Kitarovic to secure reelection would be a blow to the ruling HDZ that is backing her candidacy.
The last two elections, in 2015 and 2016, delivered hung parliaments; both were followed eventually by the creation of a government led by the right-wing Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), but only after a considerable period of uncertainty.
Recent opinion polls show the HDZ and Social Democratic Party are relatively close, with most giving an edge of a few percentage points to the HDZ. Another hung parliament certainly can’t be ruled out.
The first half of 2020 will see Croatia,the EU’s newest member states, take over the rotating presidency of the European Council.
Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic set out his government’s four priorities for the presidency in a speech on September 18.
As outlined by Plenkovic, these are:
● Growth and development, concerning the economy, the internal market, competitiveness, cohesion, convergence, environmental protection and
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