Page 73 - Central & Southeast Outlook 2020
P. 73

    2016 and Moody's projects that this trend will continue with interest payments to revenues forecast to reach 1.7% of GDP in 2020.
 4.4 ​Debt - Croatia
       The finance ministry has said Croatia plans to cut public debt to below 70% of GDP in 2020.
Croatia’s general government debt to GDP ratio is relatively high compared to its BBB peers, rating agency Fitch said in December. The rating agency forecasts Croatia’s general government debt/GDP to fall to 71.3% of GDP at end-2019, down from a high of 84.7% at end-2014, and to 65.2% by 2021 on the back of strong primary surpluses. While this level would still be well above the current BBB median of 40.1% of GDP, low interest costs and longer maturities mean debt servicing should be less difficult for Croatia than for its peers.
The World Bank forecast Croatia's public debt could continue its decline from 70.4% of GDP at the end of 2019 to an anticipated 67.5% at end-2020, and 64.6% of GDP by end-2021.
In 2018 Croatia issued its latest Eurobond on the most favourable terms to date. Croatia successfully issued the 10-year Eurobond, raising €1.5bn. The bond, maturing in 2029, had an annual coupon interest rate of 1.125% and final yield of 1.324%.
The bond was issued a week after​​Fitch raised the Croatian credit rating from BB + to BBB, following S&P which also raised Croatia to investment grade earlier in the year. “The record low interest rate reflects to a large extent the improvement of the macroeconomic picture and the reduction of macroeconomic imbalances in the Republic of Croatia, which has contributed to raising the country’s credit rating to investment grade,” the finance ministry commented at the time.
For the remainder of the year, Croatia only tapped the local market.
 4.5 ​Debt - Kosovo
   Kosovo’s public debt is expected at 17.2% of GDP in 2020
compared to 17.1% of GDP in 2019 and to increase to 18.8% of GDP in 2021, according to the World Bank.
External debt is seen 34.5% of GDP in 2020, up from 33.8% in 2019.
The Kosovan government’s debt management strategy 2018-2020 is built on risk constraints. These constraints cover the targets or guidelines for the currency, interest rates and the risk of refinancing the
 73​ CESE Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com
 




















































































   71   72   73   74   75