Page 18 - IRANRptFeb19

5.1.1 current account dynamics
Iran current account, USD mn
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Balance of payments overall
-947
21,436
12,213
13,189
8,561
2,233
Current account balance
27,554
58,507
23,362
25,105
15,861
1,237
16,388
Current account balance: % of GDP
5.66
10.08
3.87
5.43
3.12
0.32
3.92
Current account: Goods
37,330
67,779
28,563
29,326
21,392
5,354
20,843
Current account: Exports
112,788
145,806
97,296
92,910
86,471
64,597
83,978
Current account: Imports
75,458
78,027
68,734
63,584
65,079
52,419
63,135
Current account: Services
-10,040
-9,771
-7,359
-6,820
-6,985
-4,472
-5,941
Current account: Income
79
93
1,649
2,034
943
241
928
Current account: transfers
185
406
509
565
511
427
558
Capital and financial account
-24,296
40,741
-22,161
-22,510
-8,002
113
/
Errors and omissions
-3,259
-17,766
-1,2j01
-2,595
-5,635
-1,350
-5,766
Source: CEIC, Central Bank of Iran
Iran running a current account surplus and has over $100bn of gross official reserves, says IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in March that the government held $112bn of foreign assets and reserves. It also indicated that Iran was running a current account surplus. The figures imply that Iran might withstand the sanctions without an external payments crisis.
But the IMF also noted that Tehran was having difficulty accessing some of its reserves as its relations with foreign banks were constrained by the threat of US sanctions. Meanwhile, sanctions could cut the current account surplus sharply given the severe disruption they are causing to trade.
5.1.2 Import/export dynamics
Iranian ports load, unload 13.5% less non-oil goods in first 10 months of Persian year
Roughly 111mn tonnes of non-oil goods were loaded and unloaded at Iranian ports during the first 10 months of the 2018/2019 Persian calendar year, marking a 13.5% y/y decline, Tehran’s Financial Tribune daily has reported.
Iran’s trade volume has taken a huge hit since the US reintroduced heavy sanctions on Tehran last year. It has gradually ratcheted up its sanctions regime, threatening secondary sanctions against countries and foreign companies that continue to do business with the Islamic Republic.
Data from Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation (PMO) also shows oil consignments dealt with by the ports in the 10-month period (ended January 20) down by 11.7% y/y.
PMO officials said the decline was primarily down to Iran—which in the face of the renewed sanctions attack has increasingly reverted to ‘resistance economy’ policies partly to stop outflows of hard currencies—banning the import of 1,339 different items deemed luxury goods and for which Iran-made alternatives can be found. The PMO did not discuss whether the US blockading of trade with Iran played a role in the decline of processed goods. Mohammad Shariatmadari, a former minister for industry, mines and business
18 IRAN Country Report February 2019 www.intellinews.com