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Southeast Europe
March 9, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 17
a former finance minister and former deputy health minister, initiated investigations into the origin of money used to buy luxury properties and vehicles, and charged the mayor of a small town in what it said was the beginning of a series of investigations into local government officials sus- pected of corruption or abuse of office.
However, analysts are sceptical that these ac- tions will really lead to results. Moreover, the EU will most likely not buy it either. In its report on Bulgaria in January 2017, the European Commis- sion once again noted that the country had failed to make any significant progress in the battle against graft in the past 10 years. This has result- ed in a lack of trust in the judicial system among Bulgarian citizens. In its November Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM) report, the EC noted that although Bulgaria has put a lot of effort into adopting several laws, the government has failed in terms of transparency.
The EU could still give some encouragement to the government in Sofia, Koneska says. However, this could be a symbolic gesture rather than the desired entry into the Schengen zone or lifting of monitoring under the CVM, which was set up to check Bulgaria’s and Romania’s progress in fight- ing corruption and organised crime.
Bulgaria also wants to apply to enter the Euro- zone’s waiting room, the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM2), in the first half of 2018. But again, Sofia’s hopes of being accepted are fading away after European Commission President Jean- Claude Juncker and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Bulgaria still has work to do either to join the Schengen area or to meet the criteria for
becoming a member of the Eurozone. President or bust
In this situation, Borissov has another option: he could seek political salvation by running for presi- dent. However, his chance of success depends
on the popularity of Bulgaria’s current president, Rumen Radev. “I am sure that somewhere in [Borissov’s] plans there is a presidency and he
is counting on that. Whether that will be the next presidential election will probably depend on how he feels Radev has done in office,” Koneska said.
Radev got significant support in the 2016 presi- dential election mainly because he was not a politician, although he was backed by the opposi- tion Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). Since then, the former air force commander has been rather active and willing to stand up to Borissov, who he has openly criticised, and seems ready for battle. This could secure him support for next presiden- tial election, in which case Borissov, whose initial impetus as an outsider and man of the people has been tarnished during his three terms in office, would most likely draw back from the competi- tion.
With the constant ructions in Bulgarian politics at the moment making it hard to predict a week into the future, it’s impossible to say whether Borissov — or for that matter Radev — will still be on top of the political heap when the next presidential elec- tions come around four years from now. Borissov has a track record of being the only Bulgarian prime minister to make a comeback not once but twice, and considering that he likes to bet only on strong cards, if he runs for president, he would most likely win.
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