Page 106 - RusRPTFeb22

flights and -17.5% y/y for domestic flights).
The PLF factor in 4Q21 was up 4.4ppts y/y to 71.5% (-4.6ppts vs. 4Q19).
9.2.4 Construction & Real estate corporate news
PIK conference call, management guided for a 30% y/y expansion in 2022 RUBnew sales contracts and for price growth to be in line with, or above, inflation.
PIK has released strong 4Q21 operating results: sales volumes were flat y/y while prices surged 20% y/y. We think that the numbers were lifted by the acceleration in PIK's sales launches, the declining market offer, and macro volatility which offset lower mortgage subsidies, rising interest rates, and up-front-loaded demand last year. The sales volumes outperformed our model by 22% for 4Q21 and 6% for 2021, while prices matched our estimates. We note that PIK has the sector's leading operating trends and the fastest tech transformation pace.
· Residential volumes were flat y/y at 843k sqm in 4Q21. That reflected a 2% y/y decline in own land plots (705k sqm) and a 7% y/y increase in the fee-development business. For 2021, the company renewed its record (up 8% y/y to 2.5mn sqm) with the share of fee-development at 17%.
· Prices remained upbeat in 4Q21, gaining 20% y/y and 6% q/q. The latter also includes the additional discounts that PIK is providing to clients to slow rising mortgage rates, and so as to keep new housing affordable. Mortgages accounted for 75% of all deals in the quarter.
· New supply from PIK surged 41% y/y to 2.9mn sqm in 2021. We note that 30% of annual volumes came in 4Q21 (0.9mn sqm), which was thus the key driver of the release (the pace had slightly lagged in 9mo21).
· Moscow volumes gained 10% y/y in 4Q21 and the contribution to the total increased 6pp y/y to 62%, reflecting the growing focus on the capital in the latest landbank additions. Moscow region lost 25% y/y and other regions added 18% y/y from the relatively lower base.
· Cash collections from residential real estate accounted for 67% of the total in 2021 vs. 74% a year ago. This highlights the growing exposure to fee-development and construction services, maintanance and grids, and other businesses.
Etalon released 4Q21 / 2021 Operating results with sales dynamics affected by a temporary decline in real estate available for sale with active replenishment of portfolio throughout 2021 to support 2022. Conference call will be held today at 2pm UK.
§ Contract sales amounted to 129ths sqm in 4Q21 (-23% y/y; +34%
106 RUSSIA Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com