Page 109 - RusRPTFeb22

· Dividends are to amount to RUB10bn (3.5% yield) in 2022, with two equal payments in the summer and the autumn.
· The net cash position at YE21 was RUB6bn.
· Sales launches are to grow 2.4x y/y in 2022, to 3.2mn sqm.
· Residential volumes are to exceed 1.5mn sqm this year (vs.0.8mn
sqm in 2021). Around 75% are from Moscow and the Moscow
region, the rest from other regions. The 2024 target is 3.2mn sqm.
· Sales are to almost double y/y in 2022 (more than RUB240bn) and
surpass RUB0.5tn by 2024.
· The EBITDA margin is to improve 1pp y/y this year (to 23%) and
reach the medium-term target of 25% in three years.
Samolet has released the strongest numbers in the development sector for 4Q21, with residential sales surging 2.2x y/y to 299k sqm (22% ahead of our model). Last year was a breakthrough for Samolet, as volumes imply a new business scale (up 1.6x y/y to 805k sqm). Based on management accounts, revenues and EBITDA spiked 2.2-2.5x y/y to RUB131bn and RUB28.5bn, respectively, while delivering on our model and the company’s guidance. Samolet has the largest land bank in the country (28.4mn sqm as of YE21) and is to remain on a growth track: we model volumes almost doubling to 1.5mn sqm in 2022F. The stock has surged 5x in the last twelve months and now trades on P/NAV multiple of 0.9x, which is fair to us. The announced buyback is to provide incremental support (RUB3bn, 5% of freefloat).
· In 4Q21, the company sold 299k sqm of housing, the fastest pace in the sector, with volumes more than doubling.
· Prices also reflect the aggressive sectoral trends, gaining 18% y/y to RUB158k/sqm. This rate is comparable with PIK's (up 17% y/y), but behind LSR and Etalon (up 36-38% y/y) as the former two focus more on volume expansion and market share gains.
· Sales launches were also aggressive, up 18% y/y in 2021 to 1.3mn sqm (vs. 1.1mn sqm in 2020). We think the portfolio can ensure a new offer to the market that is potentially several times higher than now (PIK launched 3mn sqm last year, from its 21mn sqm portfolio).
· Samolet presented its 2021 financial results based on management accounts. Revenues surged 2.2x to RUB131bn and came 19% ahead of the guidance. EBITDA was 2.5x y/y higher at RUB28.5bn and matched our estimates. The EBITDA margin was 22%, the highest in five years,
· The stock has spiked 5x in the last twelve months and now trades almost in line with its NAV. We consider the current levels to be fair and keep our 12-month Target Price of RUB5,000 with a Hold recommendation (on the ETR of 12%).
· The company also announced a share buyback programme on Monday, for up to 500k shares or RUB3bn, whichever happens first. The shares are to be used for management’s long-term incentive programme. This amount is equal to 5% of the free float, while the intended amount is 20x larger than the daily ADTV over the last
109 RUSSIA Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com