Page 112 - RusRPTFeb22

December 2020 featured state support for families with children, which lifted the comparison base as well. Online turnover increased 19% y/y to RUB15bn, accounting for 32% of the total.
Forecast revision. The pressure on traffic was greater than we factored in our model and we do not see a rapid recovery in the near term. Our 2021F estimates remained almost unchanged and we factor the 4Q21F EBITDA margin sliding 100bp y/y to 11.6%. We see a challenging 1H22 for the company, with further uncertainties coming from potential new lockdowns. We trim the 2022F revenue growth to 12% y/y (from 15% y/y) and anticipate a pick-up from 2H22 on the improving base. The company’s strategy assumes the roll-out accelerating in smaller and new formats, as well as its marketplace, meaning that revenue growth could slow to 15% y/y in the medium term. Our 2022-26F net income estimates are down 10%.
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M.video has announced the appointment of Sergey Li as Managing Director of OneRetail from 1 February. He is to be responsible for implementing the development strategies for two key banners, M.video and Eldorado, with a focus on managing day-to-day operations in retail, customer service, marketing, mobile platform and other e-commerce areas. Li, who has over 20 years of experience in consumer electronics (15+ in M.video and Eldorado), is to report directly to Enrique Fernandez, the CEO.
Fix Price is to build a new large-scale DC (68k sqm) in Moscow Region, according to Vedomosti. PNK Group is the developer and the retailer is to get the facility in ownership after its completion. As of September 2021, Fix Price operated 282k sqm of DC space. In the next five years, we factor the store base surging 1.8x to 9k outlets and anticipate the company match this pace with its logistics capabilities. CEO Dmitry Kirsanov has stated the target to add 200k sqm of new DC space by 2025. In addition to growth in area, we note the sizeable potential to ramp up the existing logistics assets. The St Petersburg DC, for example, currently covers 35k sqm and services 350 stores, while the ultimate capacity is seen at 700-800 stores. In our model, we factor RUB13bn of DC capex in 2022-26F, or 30% of the total for the company. Fix Price is on a rapid development curve and offers one of the leading expansion profiles in our coverage universe, with a five-year revenue CAGR of 18%. The stock is down 30% in the last month and now trades on 2022F EV/EBITDA of 7x and P/E of 14x, which are not overly-demanding to us.
M.video’s 4Q21 operating numbers reveal the company’s top line gaining 8% y/y, almost matching the 9% in our model. In our non-food retail universe, we note that this outperformed Fix Price and Detsky Mir, both of which fell 4pp short of our forecasts for 4Q21. M.video benefited via its online
112 RUSSIA Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com