Page 40 - RusRPTFeb22

Export revenues from energy (oil, oil products and gas) exports rose by almost 60% as export prices recovered. Revenues from other goods (consisting largely of low-value-added products) also increased by about a third from the level of 2019–20, mainly due to higher export prices. These export earnings peaked at an all-time high. The share of energy exports in Russia's exports of goods and services recovered to about 45% last year, after being around 50% before the recession in 2020 and 60% in the early 2010s. The share of other goods rose to around 45% after being well below 40% in the second half of the 2010s.
Russia's expenditure on imports of goods grew strongly in 2021, exceeding the 2019 level by almost a fifth. However, they did not quite reach the 2012-13 highs. Import expenditure on services, with the exception of tourism, also recovered and was in the size range of 2019 but below the peak years of 2013–14. Tourism spending began to recover, but was still two-thirds lower than in 2019.
Russia's export revenues rose so much more than import expenditures in 2021 that the goods trade surplus peaked at more than 10% of GDP. Although interest and dividend payments on loans from the Russian corporate sector increased sharply, the current account surplus was also at a record high of almost 7% of GDP.
The balance between Russia and the rest of the world remained in substantial deficit last year (ie a large net inflow of capital went abroad), although the central bank exceptionally received a significant amount of special drawing rights (SDRs) (almost 1% of GDP) from the IMF as part of the IMF's global support facility. Net capital inflows from the private sector abroad increased to more than 4% of GDP. In particular, the inflow of foreign direct investment by enterprises increased and significantly exceeded foreign direct investment in the corporate sector. Companies continued to make large amounts of foreign portfolio investment and granted loans abroad. In addition, the outflow of portfolio investments from abroad to Russian companies, as well as the repayments of companies' foreign loans, continued to be substantial.
5.1.1 Current account dynamics
Russia’s current account surplus tripled in 2021. According to the CBR, Russia’s current account surplus reached $120.3bn last year (vs $36bn in 2020). The strong figure was due to growth in the trade balance surplus, which doubled from c$94bn in 2020. Net capital outflow reached $72bn in 2021 vs $50bn in 2020.
Growing dependence on the oil sector. Our estimates suggest that the current account surplus amounted to around 6.9% of GDP – the highest level since 2018. The main driver of the higher-than-expected current account surplus
40 RUSSIA Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com