Page 58 - RusRPTFeb22

In general, corporate loans grew by 11.7% in 2021, which is even higher than in the stressful 2020, when companies were in dire need of financial resources. Such a high demand for loans can be explained by the need of companies for investments, especially given the recovery of the economy from the recession, the active transition of developers to project financing using escrow accounts (about 30% of the increase in corporate loans per year), the desire of companies to fix rates before they increase, as well as the implementation of individual large transactions.
Mortgage growth accelerated significantly: according to preliminary data, taking into account securitization in the amount of 67bn rubles. growth in December amounted to 3.2% (+2.7% excluding securitization). This is a record monthly growth rate in 2021. Most likely, people tend to get a mortgage before it rises in price - despite the increase in the key rate, the average mortgage rate on the primary the market even slightly decreased (in November - 5.8%, in October - 6%, in September - 6.24%) due to the action of state support programs (in particular, issuances under family mortgages increased significantly), as well as marketing programs banks and developers. In the secondary market, the average the rate rose, but again not as significantly as the key rate (from 8.5% in October to 8.6% in November), as banks delayed the increase in rates to stimulate demand.
Of the total mortgage lending in the amount of 645bn rubles2 in December (510bn rubles in November), about 160bn rubles. (25%) was provided within the framework of state programs (in November - 111bn rubles, or 22%). The main volume fell on family mortgages3, loans for which increased by more than 60% (estimated in December - 92bn rubles after RUB56bn in November), while under the preferential program (under 7%4) they grew to a lesser extent (by 24%, to 56bn rubles after 45bn rubles5 in November).
At the end of 2021, the growth of the mortgage portfolio (adjusted for securitization) exceeded 30%, surpassing the result of 2020 (about 25%). However, we do not see high risks of overheating, as, according to our expectations, in the medium term, the issuance will decrease to more than moderate levels6 due to rising mortgage rates.
The portfolio of consumer loans in December grew slightly - according to preliminary data, by 0.5% after +1.6% in November. But adjusted for sales and write-offs of problem loans, the increase was about 0.9%, which is still below the average monthly pace and also indicates a slowdown. An additional restraining effect on consumer lending was provided by previously introduced7 macroprudential measures, as well as the growth in the cost of loans against the backdrop of rising market rates.
The annual growth rate of consumer lending was 20.1%8, which is significantly higher than in 2020 (8.8%). However, in 2022 we expect some cooling of the consumer lending due to rising rates, as well as macroprudential measures, including the planned introduction of macroprudential limits from July 2022, limiting the share of issued risky consumer loans (with PTI above 80% and for a period of more than 5 years).
58 RUSSIA Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com