Page 86 - RusRPTFeb22

9.1.1b Oil and gas sector news
The government, together with Rosneft and Gazprom, must submit their proposals with regards to the experimental gas supplies to Europe to the president by 1 March 2022, Interfaxreports. Analysts believe that providing Rosneft with gas export rights would mostly be negative for Gazprom, in terms of both sentiment and finances. The 10bcm/a of potential export volumes for Rosneft in 2023, as specified in the instruction, would lead to Gazprom’s EBITDA being 1% lower than our forecast, and Rosneft’s EBITDA being up to 4% higher (subject to the agent agreement payment with Gazprom). While gas prices remain high, investors could underestimate the negative general effect on Gazprom’s sentiment from this potential development, we believe.
In November, Russia increased oil production to 10.9 mln bpd, while the world leader, the United States - to 11.5 mln bpd
Europe imported record volumes of LNG in January, according to Kommersant’s calculations, which are based on GIE data.
As of Friday, 28 January, the EU had imported 10.36bcm, which is above the previous record of 9.9bcm in November 2019. At the same time, Gazprom’s exports to Europe, for which we should get official data from the monopoly tomorrow, 1 February, are down, according to the reported flow data. Flows through the Mallnow compressor station are reversed, and exports via Ukraine are at 65.4mcm/day, up vs. mid-January levels but below the minimum take-or-pay level when
86 RUSSIA Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com