Page 37 - RusRPTFeb20

5.2​ Balance of payments, current account
Russia trade dynamics $bn
Sep 2018
Oct 2018
Nov 2018
Dec 2018
Jan 2019
Feb 2019
Mar 2019
Apr 2019
Foreign trade turnover, billion US dollars
59.1
51.1
62.9
52.4
63.9
46.3
52.4
57.5
export of goods
37.4
30.6
41.3
33.6
41.4
29.8
34.0
36.5
import of goods
-21.6
-20.4
-21.6
-18.9
-22.5
-16.5
-18.4
-21
good trade balance
15.8
10.2
19.7
14.7
18.9
13.3
15.6
15.5
source: GKS
Russia's revenue from exports of goods and services decreased slightly in 2019, according to the Central Bank's preliminary balance of payments data.
The decline in revenue, which began in the second quarter of the year, deepened towards the end of the year. Export prices decreased slightly after rising in 2017-2018, when export revenues increased by more than 20% per year. Last year, total export earnings were pulled down by energy exports, which fell significantly as export prices slipped. Revenue from exports of other goods and services also developed modestly after the rise in the previous two years.
Imports of goods and services to Russia collapsed in 2015 following the collapse of oil prices, export earnings and the ruble. Subsequently, the recovery in imports stopped in the autumn of 2018 and imports did not start to recover until the second half of 2019, when the year-on-year increase in expenditure on imports of goods and services in euro terms was around ten%. This is mainly due to the appreciation of the ruble, which pushed the real exchange rate against the euro by 10% and by more than 6% against the trade-weighted currency basket in the last quarter.
In 2019, import expenditures increased by 8% in €terms compared to 1% in the previous year (+ 3% and + 5% in $). At this rate, expenditure on both goods imports and services imports increased. Russian travel expenses included in the import of services grew slightly faster. The value of imports, measured in euros, is still lower than in 2012-2013.
As a result of declining exports and rising imports, Russia's goods trade surplus narrowed in 2019. As the current account deficit widened, the current account surplus declined from around 7% of GDP in 2018 to over 4% of GDP.
The net outflow of capital from the private sector to abroad contracted in 2019, largely due to an increase in the flow of foreign direct investment to the Russian corporate sector (excluding banks). However, direct investment in Russia was only one and a half% of GDP. Russian companies made foreign direct investment (FDI) at about the same rate as foreign companies in Russia. Capital outflow from banks abroad decreased, and, as in previous years, was mainly related to the decline in banks' foreign debt. Russia's overall financial
37​ RUSSIA Country Report​ February 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com