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bne February 2019 Outlooks 2019 I 37
Kazakhstan’s central bank announced on June 15 that it planned to start clearing Kazakh government bonds and central bank notes via Clear- stream. German stock market operator Deutsche Boerse-owned Clearstream was making final tests in Kazakhstan in the summer. The tie-up is part of an overall ongoing drive in Kazakhstan
to shift its focus in favour of foreign investment. Clearstream will provide easier access to Kazakh government and central bank securities and thus make them more attractive to foreign investors. At the same time, this will allow the ex-Soviet country to bor- row at more competitive rates.
In January 2018, Kazakhstan’s finance ministry and Astana International Exchange (AIX) stock exchange signed an agreement to enable the clearing of Kazakh securities via Euroclear. Settlements via Euroclear are expected to launch in 2019.
Foreign investors held KZT444bn (€1.14bn) or 10.2% of the central bank’s outstanding short-term notes as of May 1, according to the regulator's data, but if Kazakhstan follows Russia’s experience this could double in 2019.
Politics
Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev remains in complete control of the
country but has yet to name a successor. He dominates the political scene
and no major changes are expected
in 2019. However, Nazarbayev's
rule is marked by the fact that he is willing to delegate responsibility to ministers and give them their head in making market-orientated reforms.
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan were the only Central Asia improvers in the World Bank’s Doing Business 2019 ranking. Kazakhstan saw its position improve to 28th from 36th among the 190 ranked economies. Kyrgyzstan rose seven places to 70th.
Poland Outlook 2019
bne IntelliNews
Time flies. It might seem the rule of Law and Justice (PiS) is still the shocking new in Polish politics, yet 2019 will be the year of the first real test for the ruling party’s resilience.
With a general election only slated to take place in the autumn, it is much too early to predict the actual outcome of the vote but there is one certainty. This is going to be a year of increased politi- cal tension and possibly destabilisation.
PiS has near-complete control of the state’s institutions, which it overhauled, reversing the status quo of the previ- ous years, sometimes decades. The ruling party will no doubt be tempted to use that control against the oppo- sition to ensure a second term.
The opposition, meanwhile, might not even require that much effort from PiS because it remains in disar- ray, despite having claimed victory
in municipal vote last October. The going narrative of working together in a united bloc has fizzled.
The main opposition party, the lib- eral Civic Platform (PO), has chosen the strategy of bulking up rather than opting for cooperation, which neces- sitates compromise. For example, PO has recently poached a number of MPs from its smaller sister party Modern (N), weakening the latter and deflat-
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