Page 82 - bne_Magazine_February_2019

82 I New Europe in Numbers bne February 2019
Russia monetary policy rate vs inflation CPI
Russia's central bank hikes policy rate 25bp to 7.75% in cautious move
Retail sales in Turkey
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has hiked its policy rate, adding 25bp to the overnight rate to bring it to 7.75% at a closely watched monetary policy meeting on December 14.
"The decision taken is proactive in nature and is aimed at limiting infla- tion risks that remain elevated, especially over the short-term horizon. There persists uncertainty over future external conditions, as well as over the reaction of prices and inflation expectations to the upcoming VAT rate increase. The increase in the key rate will help prevent firm inflation anchoring at the level significantly exceeding the Bank of Russia’s target," the regulator said in its statement put out after the meeting.
Turkey’s retail sales endure worst growth on record
Turkey's calendar-adjusted retail sales volume index declined by 7.5% y/y in October, marking the biggest annual contraction since the data set was first compiled in 2010, national statistics office TUIK reported on December 18.
The previous contraction, of 3.4% in September, was the first seen since February 2017 and it was also recorded as the most extensive until the October data arrived. Average monthly annual retail sales growth declined to 0.6% in Q3 from 5.9% in Q2 and 8.9% in Q1 2018, according to TUIK’s retail sales data.
FDI in Romania rises by 10% y/y in 10M18
Non-residents' direct investments in Romania (net FDI) rose by 10% y/y to €4.56bn in January-October 2018, the central bank announced. But the figures are mixed and long-term (equity) investments are stagnating at best, with inter-company lending substituting for them.
In the rolling 12 months ending October, net FDI remained virtually flat from the previous 12 months, at €5.2bn. Furthermore, non-residents’ equity investment in Romanian companies dropped by 26% y/y to €3.96bn in the 12-month period, while the local subsidiaries of foreign groups borrowed €1.24bn (that counts as FDI as well) from parent companies compared to the €177mn returned during the previous 12-month period.
Czech unemployment falls to 25-year low of 2.1%
The Czech seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in a quarter of a century of 2.1% in October, down by 0.5 percentage points (pp) year-on-year, according to the Czech Statistics Office data published on November 30.
The male seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 1.7%, the rate for females was 2.5%. The economic activity rate reached 76.7%, an increase of 0.5 pp in October y/y. Following the seasonal adjustment, the male economic activity rate of 83.1% exceeds the female economic activity rate by 13.0% pp.
Romania: FDI inflows (€mn, monthly and 12M)
Czech ILO unemployment index
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