Page 24 - UKRRptJul19

is tense, according to poll conducted by the Socis Social and Marketing Research Center presented at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on June 14. According to the study, 67.7% of respondents said that the situation in Ukraine is tense, 19.9% believe it is stable, 8.9% said that the situation in the country is a tinderbox, and 3.5% refused to answer. Only 25.9% of respondents believe that events in Ukraine are moving in the right direction, 48.6% believe that events are right in some spheres and wrong in some other, 20% of respondents believe in the wrong course of events, and 5.6% found it difficult to answer or did not answer the question. Some 35.8% of respondents believe that Ukraine should have its own development path and rely solely on its resources. 31.7% are in favor of the need to seek membership in the European Union, 15.9% are inclined to think that Ukraine needs both integration into the EU and the development of close relations with neighboring countries in the east. Only 12.5% of citizens are in favor of the need to restore friendly relations with Russia and the CIS countries, 0.3% chose the "other" option, 3.9% did not know the answer to the question or refused to answer. The
Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party most opposed by public. The European Solidarity party headed by former President Poroshenko is the most opposed by the Ukrainian public, according to a poll conducted between May 15 and 31.
About 48.1% of respondents said they won’t vote for the party in the early parliamentary elections scheduled for July 21. Another 21.9% are opposed to the Opposition Platform For Life party led by Yuriy Boyko, who has a pro-Russian position, and 16.1% are opposed to the Fatherland party led by Yulia Tymoshenko, known for her anti-IMF positions. The poll, released on June 3, was conducted among 2,100 respondents by the Social Monitoring Center and the Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute of Social Research.
Four parties would qualify for parliament if elections were held today, according to the same poll. The People’s Servant party loyal to President Volodymyr Zelensky would earn about 30.8% of votes, the Opposition Platform For Life party has 8.2% support, the European Solidarity party has 7.9% support and the Fatherland party has 7.0%. Among the projected qualifiers, the pro-Euro-Atlantic parties have 45.7% support, compared to 8.2% for the pro- Russian party. Pro-IMF parties have 38.7% support, compared to 15.2% for anti-IMF parties.
European Solidarity might be the most opposed party, but European Union membership is still supported by 57% of the Ukrainian public, according to a poll conducted in early May. So this latest poll merely confirms that Ukrainians don’t trust Poroshenko in leading Ukraine towards the European Union. Competition for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic electorate will be intense in the elections, involving at least a dozen parties, including The People’s Servant.
3.0 Macro Economy
Business cycle indicators
Real GDP, chg yoy
Household consumption, chg yoy
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
Industrial output, chg yoy
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
2008
2.3%
11.8%
1.6%
-5.2%
948
2009
-14.8%
-14.9%
-50.5%
-21.9%
913
2010
4.1%
7.1%
3.9%
11.2%
1,079
2011
5.2%
15.7%
7.1%
8.0%
1,300
2012
0.2%
8.4%
5.0%
-0.7%
1,405
2013
0.0%
6.9%
-6.7%
-4.3%
1,465
2014
-6.6%
-8.3%
-24.0%
-10.1%
1,587
2015
-9.8%
-20.7%
-9.2%
-13.0%
1,989
2016
2.3%
1.8%
20.1%
2.8%
2,383
2017
2.5%
7.8%
18.2%
0.4%
2,983
2018E
3.3%
8.9%
14.3%
1.1%
3,559
2019E
2.70%
4.90%
7.00%
2.50%
4,021
24 UKRAINE Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com