Page 34 - UKRRptJul19

5.0 External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
Current account balance, USD bln
% GDP
Financial account balance, USD bln
% GDP
FDI net, USD bln
% of GDP
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
Monetary and banking indicators
Source: SP Advisors
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
-12.8 -1.7 -3 -10.2 -14.3 -16.5 -4.6 -0.2 -3.5 -2.4 -4.5 -4.7
-7.1% -1.5% -2.2% -6.3% -8.1% -9.0% -3.4% -0.2% -3.7% -2.2% -3.4% -3.2%
9.7 -12 8 7.8 10.1 18.6 -9.1 0.6 4.7 5 7.4 4
5.4% -10.2% 5.9% 4.8% 5.8% 10.1% -6.8% 0.6% 5.0% 4.5% 5.6% 2.7%
9.9 4.7 5.8 7 7.2 4.1 0.3 3 3.3 2.6 2.4 2.5
5.5% 4.0% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 2.2% 0.2% 3.3% 3.5% 2.3% 1.8% 1.7%
31.5 26.5 34.6
2008 2009 2010
31.8
2011
24.5 20.4 7.5 13.3
2012 2013 2014 2015
15.5 18.8
2016 2017
20.8 20.5
2018E 2019E
Poland overtook Russia to become Ukraine’s biggest trade partner in May and maintained its lead in April (the most recent month of data), accounting for about 15% of trade amongst Ukraine’s top 15 trade partners. All-in-all Russia’s share in Ukraine’s trade continues to sink slowly, down from circa 9% to just over 6% in April y/y, although Russia remains easily the second largest trade partner.
Another big change in the trade regime is the appearance out of nowhere of China that is now Ukraine’s third largest trade partner. China’s trade has been almost doubling every month this year rising from $160mn in January to $313mn in February, $640mn in March and was $916mn in April, according to the official statistics.
Ukraine has been very slow to tie up with the Chinese who have been investing heavily throughout the region (and especially in Russia and Belarus) but it seems Kyiv is on the bandwagon now. While it seems certain that Sino- Ukrainian trade will top $1bn this year and probably end closer to $2bn, that is still well behind the Russians which have $100bn of trade turnover and are on course to hit $200bn in the next few years.
Overall Ukraine’s trade is growing but the balance of payments deficit is growing faster as wage growth sucks in imports. But with a fifth of the population working abroad the circa $10bn they send home a year easily covers the deficits so the current account deficit remains modest.
34 UKRAINE Country Report July 2019
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