Page 37 - UKRRptJul19

deficit reached a $609mn deficit in April, decreasing from $645mn in March, the State Statistics Service said in its preliminary report on June 14. The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit amounted to $924mn (staying close to a $916mn deficit in March) amid 0.6% m/m growth in adjusted exports and a 0.6% m/m increase in adjusted imports.
In 4M19, the trade deficit reached $2.1bn, swelling 45.2% y/y. In 4M19, goods exports advanced 6.0% y/y to $16.4bn. Meanwhile, goods imports rose 9.3% y/y to $18.5bn. The agricultural sector remained the major contributor to export growth. In particular, grain exports surged 46.4% y/y and finished food product exports picked up 13.0% y/y. In addition, exports of mineral products increased 12.8% y/y. At the same time, exports of ferrous metals and machinery declined 8.8% y/y and 5.6% y/y, respectively.
Road vehicle and aircraft imports surged 39.9% y/y, remaining a major contributor to rising imports overall. In addition, machinery imports improved 6.0% y/y, while imports of mineral fertilizers gained 38.6% y/y.
Exports to the EU grew 4.8% y/y in 4M19, while EU imports jumped 11.8% y/y. The share of the EU in Ukraine’s exports and imports amounted to 42.4% and 41.9%, respectively.
The trade deficit continues to enlarge, with goods export growth slowing from the effect of last year’s record-high grain crop wearing off. Meanwhile, two other important exports sectors – ferrous metals and machinery – continue to decline.
The provisional customs statistics released this month promise that May’s goods trade deficit will decline to $0.4bn amid accelerated growth of goods export.
Analysts expect the 2019 goods trade deficit (according to UkrStat methodology) will swell to $11.5bn (from $9.8bn in 2018), with import growth outpacing export gains.
Ukraine posts US$284mn in surplus of balance of payments in Jan-April.
In April 2019 alone, the balance of payments showed a deficit of $45mn.
Ukraine’s current account (C/A) deficit declined to $8mn in April (from $564mn in March) due to a restored surplus in primary income, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on May 31.
In the absence of large interest payments on foreign debt, the primary account switched to a $471mn surplus in April from a $111mn deficit in the prior month. In 4M19, the C/A deficit amounted to $388mn (vs. $354mn in 4M18).
The April, financial and capital account switched into the red ($37mn deficit) vs. a $1.2bn surplus in the prior month. In particular, net foreign currency outflow from the banking system amounted to $267mn in April (vs. a net inflow of $878mn in March).
37 UKRAINE Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com