Page 45 - UKRRptJul19

6.2 Debt
DEBT 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E*
External debt (US$bn, 80 101.7 103.4 117.3 126.2 134.6 142.1 126.3 118.7 113.6 124.2 eop)
External debt (% of 55.8 55.3 91 86.1 77.4 77.3 79.1 96.2 130.4 121.7 126.6 ann'd GDP, eop)
FX reserves (US$bn, 32.5 31.5 26.5 34.6 31.8 24.5 20.4 7.5 12.4 11.9 15.6 eop)
FX reserves (% of 22.6 17.2 23.3 25.4 19.5 14.1 11.4 5.7 13.6 12.8 13.3 ann'd GDP, eop)
External debt / FX 2.5 3.2 3.9 3.4 4 5.5 7 17.7 9.6 9.5 8.0 reserves (x, eop)
FX reserves imports cov (months)
5.6
3.9
5.9
6
4.1
2.9
2.5
1.3
3.3
3.6
3.3
Source: ICU
Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed declined by 1.8% month-on-month to $78.4bn in May, the nation's Finance Ministry reported on June 26.
The state debt has fallen to 54% of Ukraine’s 2018 GDP – a comfortable level. Ukraine faces a debt mountain of repayments this year, but so far things are going well. State foreign debt decreased 3.2% m/m to $38.9bn, while state domestic debt inched up 0.3% m/m to $29.3bn.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on June 27 that state foreign debt declined due to the May 16 redemption of $1bn in US-guaranteed bonds issued in 2014. In addition, Ukraine’s debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) dropped by $240mn in May.
The state debt in June will rise as a result of the placement of a euro- denominated sovereign Eurobond on June 13, she added.
Concorde forecasts state and state-guaranteed debt will increase to $80.8bn in 2019, or around 56% of GDP vs. $70.3bn, or 53.9% of GDP, in 2018.
Ukraine’s Finance Ministry projects the state debt to fall to 42.4% of GDP by the end of 2022 from 52.3% of GDP at the end of 2018, according to the Mid-Term Strategy of State Debt Management for 2019-2022 adopted by the Cabinet of Ministers on June 5.
The strategy anticipates that Ukraine’s GDP will speed up from 2.8% y/y growth in 2019 to 3.3% y/y in 2020, 3.8% y/y in 2021 and 4.1% y/y in 2022. MinFin expects the state debt to lower to 51.1% of GDP by the end of 2019.
45 UKRAINE Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com