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elections.
Investors are wondering exactly what is the relation between Zelenskiy and his mentor, oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky. Zelenskiy put some distance between himself and his media benefactor by saying clearly the government will not denationalise Privatbank, that used to belong to Kolomoisky, nor would it default on its IMF debt, as Kolomoisky suggested Ukraine should do in an interview. However, Zelenskiy’s remarks need to be muted as he still needs the help of Kolomoisky’s media empire for his Servant of the People (SOTP) party to win a large share of parliamentary seats in the July 21 general election.
The early elections are on after the Constitutional Court confirmed Zelenskiy’s right to dissolve the Rada. SOTP is well out in front polling at 35%-48% according to a raft of recent polls, against the 6%-12% the other parties are polling. Currently somewhere between five and seven parties could enter the new Rada, according to different polls. Ex Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili could be one of those although his bid to join the race remains disputed.
While there is an outside chance SOTP will win a clean majority, more likely is SOTP will have to go into a coalition with one of the other parties. Zelenskiy’s team have ruled out a coalition with former President Petro Poroshenko’s European party or the pro-Russian Opposition party of Yuriy Boyko (aka Boiko). The most likely scenario is for SOTP to tie up with rock star’s new party Golos (aka Holos, or “Voice”) of singer and musician Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, which is polling at around 6%. A broader coalition with Yulia Tymoshenko’s Fatherland (9.1%) is also possible, although the Zelenskiy team said it would not form coalitions with “old” parties. Tymoshenko has made it clear she will insist on becoming Prime Minister as a condition to joining a coalition.
Zelenskiy agrees to revive Minsk peace talks in Normandy Four format. Zelenskiy said during his campaign that ending the war in Donbas was his top priority, and the polls show that this is also the biggest source of concern to the average Ukrainian. The president met with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on May 30 in Kyiv to discuss ways to revive the Minsk Accords peace talks. “We reached the agreement that we will try to fulfil the Minsk Accords in the Normandy Four framework of talks between France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine for peace to be established in eastern Ukraine,” Maas said. Zelenskiy has reappointed former president Leonid Kuchma as Ukraine’s representative in the talks, a slightly unsavoury choice, but a heavy hitter in what was a politically pragmatic decision.
6 UKRAINE Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com