Page 14 - UKRRptAug19

3.0 Macro Economy
Business cycle indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.3%
-14.8%
4.1%
5.2%
0.2%
0.0%
-6.6%
-9.8%
2.3%
2.5%
3.3%
2.70%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.8%
-14.9%
7.1%
15.7%
8.4%
6.9%
-8.3%
-20.7%
1.8%
7.8%
8.9%
4.90%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.6%
-50.5%
3.9%
7.1%
5.0%
-6.7%
-24.0%
-9.2%
20.1%
18.2%
14.3%
7.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.2%
-21.9%
11.2%
8.0%
-0.7%
-4.3%
-10.1%
-13.0%
2.8%
0.4%
1.1%
2.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2,983
3,559
4,021
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
146
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2,638
3,077
3,336
CPI (eop)
22.3%
12.3%
9.1%
4.6%
-0.2%
0.5%
24.9%
43.3%
12.4%
13.7%
9.8%
7.10%
CPI average
25.2%
15.9%
9.4%
8.0%
0.6%
-0.3%
12.1%
48.7%
13.9%
14.4%
10.90 %
8.20%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.9%
9.6%
8.9%
8.7%
8.2%
7.8%
9.7%
9.5%
9.7%
9.9%
9.1%
8.00%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
With Ukraine’s GDP expected to hit $150bn this year, the nation is on track to record 60% cumulative GDP growth since 2016 , when it was $93.4bn. Over the last four years, the hryvnia dollar exchange rate has varied little, staying largely within a 25-26 band. In 2013, Ukraine’s GDP peaked in dollar terms at $183bn. But, from 2009 to 2013, the exchange was fixed at 8 hryvnia to the dollar, an artificially high rate.
The NBU has revised its economic growth forecast compared to the April macroeconomic forecast to 3% in 2019 (from 2.5%) and 3.2% in 2020 (from 2.9%) amid stronger domestic demand, more favorable terms of trade, and expectations of a larger harvest of grain crops.
Domestic demand will remain the main driver of economic growth over the coming years. Private consumption growth will decelerate, albeit remaining high owing to an increase in real household income – wages, pensions, and remittances from abroad. Capital investment will continue to grow rapidly, which will also provide significant support to the economy.
Economic growth will be dampened by a weak global economic activity and decrease in gas transit to European countries starting in 2020, due to the construction of bypassing gas pipelines.
The NBU has revised its economic growth forecast compared to the April macroeconomic forecast to 3% in 2019 (from 2.5%) and 3.2% in 2020 (from 2.9%) amid stronger domestic demand, more favorable terms of trade, and
14 UKRAINE Country Report August 2019 www.intellinews.com