Page 23 - UKRRptAug19

In 5M19, retail trade increased 9.6% in real terms (vs. 5.0% y/y in 5M18).
Regionally, the highest retail growth in 5M19 occurred in the Vinnytsia (18.3% y/y), Cherkasy (15.6% y/y) and Odesa (15.2% y/y) regions. It was slowest in the Chernihiv (0.5% y/y), Chernivtsi (0.8% y/y) and Zakarpattia (2.1% y/y) regions.
“Real retail continued to advance in May, driven by personal income growth (mostly wages). We expect real retail trade to increase 6-7% y/y in 2019 (vs. 5.8% y/y in 2018),” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note.
5.0 External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Current account balance, USD bln
-12.8
-1.7
-3
-10.2
-14.3
-16.5
-4.6
-0.2
-3.5
-2.4
-4.5
-4.7
% GDP
-7.1%
-1.5%
-2.2%
-6.3%
-8.1%
-9.0%
-3.4%
-0.2%
-3.7%
-2.2%
-3.4%
-3.2%
Financial account balance, USD bln
9.7
-12
8
7.8
10.1
18.6
-9.1
0.6
4.7
5
7.4
4
% GDP
5.4%
-10.2%
5.9%
4.8%
5.8%
10.1%
-6.8%
0.6%
5.0%
4.5%
5.6%
2.7%
FDI net, USD bln
9.9
4.7
5.8
7
7.2
4.1
0.3
3
3.3
2.6
2.4
2.5
% of GDP
5.5%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
4.1%
2.2%
0.2%
3.3%
3.5%
2.3%
1.8%
1.7%
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
31.5
26.5
34.6
31.8
24.5
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
20.8
20.5
Monetary and banking indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
23 UKRAINE Country Report August 2019 www.intellinews.com