Page 120 - RusRPTNov21

There is plenty of sparse capacity at European LNG terminals to take in more deliveries.
The International Energy Agency has recognized a collapse in oil prices by 2050 as unlikely. The price of oil will drop to $24 per barrel by 2050 only if the whole world by this time becomes carbon neutral, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) - and no one believes in even the most daring predictions. In all other scenarios, oil will remain quite expensive, IEA analysts believe. This scenario looks more optimistic than the one that the Russian Ministry of Finance described in a recent draft budget with reference to the same IEA - with oil at $25 per barrel, even if not the whole world, but individual countries will achieve carbon neutrality. According to the forecast of IEA analysts, a drop in oil prices to $24 per barrel by 2050 is possible only if the most radical decarbonization scenario is implemented. If all countries become carbon neutral by the middle of the century, the human need for new oil and gas fields will completely disappear, and oil production by 2050 will be reduced almost fourfold, to 24mn barrels per day (more than 90mn barrels per day are currently being produced). If this scenario is implemented, oil will drop in price to $36 per barrel by 2030, the agency said.
Russia’s Gazprom plans to keep pumping gas into domestic storage until Nov. 1, dashing European hopes for gas price relief this month. Gazprom supplies the EU with about one third of its gas. Due to an exceptionally cold winter last year, Russia ended its heating season with storage facilities were 16% full, less than half the normal level, Bloomberg calculates. This year, Russia aims to have a record 72.6 billion cubic meters in stock for the winter.
Europe’s underground gas storage sites are 78% full, far lower than the averages of the last decade. With gas injections virtually stopped, the low
120 RUSSIA Country Report November 2021 www.intellinews.com