Page 45 - RusRPTNov21

Higher current account versus our initial scenario. Sber expects gas exports to increase by around $30bn. But this means that export duties will increase by around $9bn. As these revenues will be transferred to the National Wealth Fund, gross international reserves will increase by the same $9bn. In the balance of payments, this will be compensated for by an increase in the current account by the same amount. In this case, the FX market will receive $21bn in additional liquidity.
Sber also expects USD/RUB to average RUB68.3 to the dollar in 2022. Its previous forecast was USD/RUB70, but now sees the ruble almost 2.5% stronger. The inflow of an additional $21bn to the FX market will be positive for the ruble.
Budget surplus to be larger in 2022, but borrowing will be higher. Sber now sees the federal budget surplus at RUB1.6 trillion (1.2% of GDP), up from RUB1.2 trillion before. The paradox of the fiscal rule is that higher export gas prices have a positive effect on revenues, but if the ruble is strengthening, the government has to borrow more. We forecast net borrowing next year at RUB2.6 trillion versus the government's plan of RUB2.3 trillion.
The official CBR macroeconomic forecasts are here.
45 RUSSIA Country Report November 2021 www.intellinews.com