Page 57 - RusRPTNov21

4.5.2 Income dynamics
The recently distributed social payments contributed to a solid 7.6% y/y increase in real income and 8.1% rise in real disposable income in 3Q21. However, real wage growth has been comparatively modest at just 2.2% y/y in July and 1.5% in August (the September data is not available yet).
Thus, real income growth is set to slow in 4Q21 unless more social payments are distributed. It is interesting that real wage growth has remained so low despite a drop in unemployment to new record lows of 4.4% in August and 4.3% in September. Analysts attribute this to the increased inflow of migrant workers into the Russian labour market and the pension reform, which increased the working-age population.
The likely slowdown in real disposable income growth in 4Q21 and the ongoing tightening of monetary policy will lead to disinflation in 2022.
57 RUSSIA Country Report November 2021 www.intellinews.com