Page 76 - RusRPTNov21

6.1.1 Budget dynamics - results
The federal budget surplus for 9mo21 expanded to RUB1.44tn ($20.15bn),
in line with our projections and exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RUB1.1tn.
The report shows that i) spending on social policy and healthcare fell below the seasonal norms in September, dropping roughly -20% y/y each; and that ii) catch-up outlays on national defence accelerated, springing back +111% y/y.
VTBC expect this pattern to prevail in the remainder of the year as the fiscal stance turns disinflationary: expenditures on social policy are set to fall short of the seasonal norms in October-December, as social items have been executed by 80% – so far the largest execution rate among all spending categories (despite a drop in September).
VTBC believe that outlays on the national economy (infrastructure) and national defence are set to be prioritised in the remainder of 2021.
Revenue collection has remained strong: VTB expect the total federal budget proceeds for 2021F to exceed MinFin's most recent estimate for this year of RUB23.8tn by some +RUB0.3tn to reach RUB24.1tn. Additional non-O&G proceeds, most likely, will be channeled to the reserve fund for later disbursement in 2022 and beyond and will not affect the borrowing plan, we
76 RUSSIA Country Report November 2021 www.intellinews.com